The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
8:00 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures continued their rally overnight to 6796.60, but have eased back as the morning progresses. Resistance lies near 6770.00, the right shoulder of the Head & Shoulders formation, which has held the cash market thus far. In addition, the 61.8% Fibonacci level is at 6768.00, which may also resist a breakthrough. While the SPX may go higher, liquidity is thin and additional resistances are at 6800.00 and 6835.00. Jobless claims tumbled this morning, easing the need for the Fed to stimulate with another cut. In the past week, hedge funds and commercials have been trapped into selling low and buying high as moves have been extremely volatile.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6735.00, which is also Intermediate support/resistance. Long gamma is above 6750.00 while short gamma lies beneath 6725.00.
VIX futures fell to 18.05 this morning, challenging the 32-day Moving Average at 18.32. VIX is primed for a lift-off as the uptrend recommences. The Cycles Model suggests a minor (trading Cycle) low may be at hand. Trending strength begins on Monday. Enjoy the holiday!
The December 3 options chain shows short gamma between 15.00 and 19.00. Long gamma may begin at 20.00.
TNX has made a bounce that may turn into a mid-Cycle reversal, sending yields higher. Keep that in mind as the pending rate cut may be postponed. A rally above the Intermediate support/resistance at 40.59 may signal a major change in attitude about yields.
ZeroHedge notes, “It was back in February, when we explained to Elon Musk why his strategy to shock the US government into spending “efficiency” through DOGE, while noble, is ultimately doomed to wit: “What Musk is doing in trying to streamline the govt is admirable but ultimately it will be Congress that decides the endgame. And there things are as status quo as always.””
Bitcoin may have completed its retracement on Monday with a high probability of a resumption of its decline. Today is a high volatility day and the outcome may offer a possible reversal.