The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
7:30 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures remained flat over the week. end beneath Friday’s high at 6016.87 and one of its potential target zone from 6020.00. SPX may have completed its Master Cycle Friday morning as it had completed a trading (60-day) Cycle from the April 7 low. The magnitude of both the decline and retracement places them in the category of a Primary Cycle. The August 5 decline is in the category of an Intermediate Cycle, while most other declines were of the Minor category. Many analysts consider Friday’s high a breakout without looking at the bigger picture.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6000.00. Long gamma kicks in at 6040.00 while short gamma resides beneath 5975.00.
VIX remained above the trendline and appears to have begun its ascent this weekend. Friday’s low may have completed the Master Cycle. If not, it may be finished within the next few days. Market protection is cheap. The subsequent rally may be on for the records.
Bitcoin has risen to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement this morning at 107720.00. While that is a common retracement level, the bounce may go as high as 111000.00 or higher, as this is the first bounce after an all-time high. But the likelihood of a new all-time high is fading fast.
USD continues to rise out of its Master Cycle low made last Thursday. No signal is given yet. We wait for Intermediate resistance at 99.77 or the 50-day Moving Average at 100.36 to be overtaken to have confidence in a buy signal. The Cycles Model anticipates Trending Strength to rise toward mid-week. The new Master Cycle may last until August, giving a long-lived rally to the Cycle Top at 110.79.
TNX is consolidating after a strong surge on Friday. It is on a buy signal and is due for more strength near the end of the week after a minor pullback. During the next month, the Cycles Model anticipates TNX rising above the Cycle Top and the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation.
The Japanese Yen may have completed its Master Cycle low and appears poised to resume its rally above its Cycle Top and Lip of the Cup with Handle formation. The Cycles Model calls for a rally lasting to mid-July, which offers time to challenge its target.
Gold futures bounced from its Intermediate support and trendline at 3308.00 over the weekend. However, the bounce may not last, as the Cycles Model anticipates the decline to continue until mid-July. Once beneath 3300.00, the 50-day may offer some support at 3246.63.