The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
7:45 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures declined to 5924.60, then bounced to retest the trendline near 5967.60 in the overnight session. The trendline may have been broken and now awaits the BLS monthly payrolls report. A breakdown here may certify the end of the current Master Cycle which inverted in the last two weeks. Yesterday’s high at 5999.70 may mark the inflection. Should that be the case, the Cycles Model proposes a decline that may last until August.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5960.00 Long gamma may begin above 5975.00 while short gamma is strong beneath 5950.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “S&P 500 futures rose 0.4% as Tesla shares rebounded 4% in premarket on signs that the spat between President Donald Trump and Elon Musk is cooling. Market gains had little conviction as traders brace for Friday’s main event: a pivotal payrolls report (full preview here) that’s likely to set the direction of travel for markets. Nasdaq futures also add 0.5% even as Broadcom shares fall 3% in premarket after giving a a lackluster revenue forecast for the current quarter. European stocks are little changed. Bond yields are 1-2bp lower; the USD is higher; the yen dropped after BBG reported that Bank of Japan officials are likely to discuss slowing their pullback from buying government bonds at a policy meeting later this month. Commodities are mostly higher: Gold climbs $6 to around $3,358/oz while silver tops $36/oz. WTI falls 0.6% to $63 a barrel. Bitcoin rises 3%. Macro headlines were largely muted overnight; All eyes on NFP today.”
VIX futures are hugging the trendline acting as a “floor” for its trading activity. This also is an inversion, giving the VIX a double bottom. The Cycles Model suggests a ramp up to mid-July.
The June 11 options chain shows Max Pain at 19.00. Short gamma resides at 17.00-18.00. Long gamma begins above 20.00 and may extend to 50.00.
The 10-year Treasury yield moved above both the 50-day Moving Average at 43.52 and Intermediate support/resistance at 43.95, giving a clear buy signal. As of 8:45 am it has risen above 44.50 and still climbing. based on nonfarm payrolls which increased by 139,000 in May. There may be more commentary later.
ZeroHedge observes, “A better than expected headline payrolls print has sparked a surge in stocks and bond yields this morning as the long-await (and hoped for by some) recessionary collapse in the labor market remains elusive.
Even if below the surface things are not so healthy, rate-cut expectations for 2025 have plunged to less than two total cuts (2026 expectations up marginally)…”
USD futures rose to a morning high at 99.21 this morning in a probable departure from its double bottom/Master Cycle low. It may now renew its attempt at overhead resistance at 99.76, where a potential buy signal awaits. The Cycles Model anticipates a rally to mid-August. During that length of time, the USD may rise to its Cycle Top at 110.78, fueled by a short covering panic.
Bitcoin declined to test its 50-day Moving Average at 100620.00. yesterday, then bounced to 104224.00. Bitcoin may retest the 50-day in the near term, but may rise to one of the Fibonacci levels between 105000.00 and 107700.00 over the next week or so. During that time trading may be chaotic.
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