8:30 am 2 Chronicles 7:14
“If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sins, and will heal their land.”
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 6021.00 this morning, short of the Cycle Top resistance at 6025.00. A reversal beneath the Cycle Top (even with a new ATH) may provoke an aggressive sell signal. Today is day 266 of the aging Master Cycle, with the all-time high made on Tuesday, day 263. The final fractal (Wave 5) appears to be complete, having similarity to the fractal form of Wave 3. Today is a half-day with no expectations of a large move in either direction, due to the holidays.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures gained for the second day ahead of a shortened trading session after the Thanksgiving holiday, with Treasuries also rising and the dollar slipping amid mounting (if naive) speculation that president-elect Donald Trump will temper his most extreme trade policies drove the dollar to its biggest weekly loss in three months. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both rose 0.2%, pointing to modest gains in Friday’s post-holiday trading session on Wall Street. The 10-year Treasury yield fell four basis points to 4.22%, the lowest in more than a month, as cash trading resumed after the Thanksgiving holiday. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.2%, ending an 8 week winning streak and heading for its biggest weekly loss in three months. Oil prices oil prices reverse an earlier loss and trade near session highs with WTI now at $69.20, while gold adds $25 to $2660. Bitcoin rises above $96,000. There is nothing on today’s macro calendar.”
VIX futures tested the Tuesday low at 13.88 by declining to 13.90 this morning. However, the corrective decline may be complete as the VIX edges higher. VIX options have been given a clean slate after this week’s options expiration, allowing longs to dominate future options chains.
TNX declined to 42.06, finding support at the mid-Cycle at 42.05. The correction may be complete, having met its Cyclical target. A resumption of the rally may continue until early January as financing pressures build in the US Treasury. The global CPI hs started to rise again…
Bitcoin may have completed its first declining fractal (5 waves down, three up). Having done so, it is at risk of an imminent, sharp reversal. A panic decline may develop quickly as the next decline structurally may be larger than the first, at a 9.11% decline. The Cycle Top at 86995.77 may be the minimum target, with the 50-day Moving Average at 78386.05 possibly being met.
US Dollar futures made a holiday low at 105.58 before staging a possible bounce. The corrective bounce may rise to the Cycle Top resistance at 107.35 before declining to the mid-Cycle support at 103.90, all within the month of December. Analysts may look upon this action as the end of the uptrend in the USD. The Cycles Model suggests the rising trend in the USD is far from over.