10:15 am
Bitcoin may be retracing a completed fractal on day 258, suggesting the high may already be in. The 50% retracement level is near 95250.00. The 61.8% retracement is legible at 96366.27. While Bitcoin may retrace to a higher level, time may be running out. Time to sell.
8:15 am 2 Chronicles 7:14
“If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sins, and will heal their land.”
Good Morning and Happy Thanksgiving!
SPX futures have made a nominal new high at 6027.80, then eased lower. A new high in the cash market may not necessarily be followed by the same in the futures market. Today is day 264 of the current Master Cycle (average 258 days). The Cycles Model suggests a reversal may be followed by a decline to the end of the year.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6005.00 Long gamma rules above 6020.00 while short gamma may begin beneath 6000.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are lower as markets digested Trump’s latest cabinet appointments and looked ahead to a barrage of macroeconomic data ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday for clues on the outlook for interest rates. As of 8:00am ET, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.3% while the S&P 500 slipped 0.1% with Mag 7 names mostly lower (NVDA -1.2% and MSFT -0.6%). Treasuries advanced, pushing the 10-year benchmark yield down by five basis points to 4.26% with a slew of pre-Thanksgiving holiday US data expected, including the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and an update on economic growth. The dollar fell versus all Group-of-10 peers amid month-end flows while the euro rose to a fresh day high after hawkish comments from ECB Board member Isabel Schnabel. Commodities are mixed with precious metals and oil higher, while base metals are lower. Today, the main macro focus will be PCE release and Durable/Cap Goods Orders.”
VIX futures consolidated above yesterday’s low this morning. The Cycles Model claims new strength may appear through the rest of the week, despite the holiday. This is a good time to accumulate shares to hedge what may come as the current Master Cycle may last up to early February.
Today is options expiration for the VIX, where much of the short gamma comes off the books. The December 4 options chain shows no appreciable short gamma while long gamma begins at 14.00 and extends to 33.00.
TNX declined lower this morning to 42.46, challenging Intermediate support at 42.79. The Cycles Model often places the Wave 2 low at the mid-Cycle support at 42.04, which may happen yet this week. By next week it indicates a possible resumption of the rally in yields until early January. The bond market sees Trump’s win as inflationary, where nominal yields are compared to those of inflation-linked bonds.
ZeroHedge observes, “After yesterday’s stellar 2Y auction, many expected today’s sale of 5Y paper to be similarly solid especially with yields flattish on the session after yesterday’s massive flattening which pushed the 2s10s back into inversion. And they were not disappointed.
Starting at the top, the auction priced at a high yield of 4.197%, up from 4.138% in October and the highest since Jun. It also stopped through the When Issued 4.199% by 0.2bps. This was the first non-tailing auction since June.”
The Japanese Yen continues to rise, eroding any gains made from the carry trade. A breakout above the mid-Cycle resistance at 65.87 not only give a possible buy signal for the Yen, but may also be recognized as a threat to a popular source of liquidity. The new Master Cycle may last until mid-March.
The Euro rose to 105.79, challenging the Cycle Bottom resistance at 105.40. The resistance at the Cycle Bottom may send the Euro lower, as the Master Cycle has a couple more weeks of decline left. Not only is the Euro bound toward parity with the US Dollar, but may reach or exceed the low at 95.59 made in September 2022.
USD futures tumbled this morning as it mean reverts to the mid-Cycle support at 103.97. The new Master Cycle is due to continue the decline to the end of the year.
Gold futures rallied to 2683.21, challenging the 50-day Moving Average at 2675.00. Intermediate resistance and the trendline lie at 2688.00, which may be the stopper for this bounce. A reversal here may send gold in a decline to the end of the year. The minimum target appears to be near 2300.00. There is a 5-year trendline near 1900.00.