June 18, 2024


A Fractal analysis of the NDX shows the limitations of the rally.  There are two Fractal resistances that emerge from this analysis.  The first Fractal resistance is at 20097.00, near the trendline.  The second Fractal resistance is at 20172.00, the maximum for this rally.  Keep in mind that any rally above 19977.84 fulfils the minimum value that completes the Fractal.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Holding and Hoping

US stocks reset record highs overnight as the NASDAQ rose 1.25% and the S&P500 closed up 0.77%. Even European stocks shook off the turmoil of the last few days to close higher. The EuroStoxx 100 was up 0.85%, the DAX rose 0.37% and the CAC40 rebounded from steep losses last week to close up 0.91%.”


7:35 am

Good Morning!  Have you been praying for our country?

SPX futures are in a flat correction with yet a final probe higher to go.  The probable target may be from 5510.00 to 5522.00.  Then a reversal.  You may notice that I have determined that the Master cycle had ended on May 23.  You will see why on the next chart of the DJIA.  Structurally, the May 23 high had all the elements of an all-time-high.  However, it extended due to the magnificent 5 stocks that caught investor’s attention.  In the meantime, the internals have been deteriorating.  The percent of SPX stocks above their 50-day Moving Average have fallen to 43.6% last week.  The NYSE Hi-Lo Index has fallen to -9.00.  All of these (and other) indexes have begun to fail on May 20.  In other words the SPX is in a rogue Wave based almost solely on the Magnificent 7 stocks.  A Key Reversal is possible with a close beneath 5420.00.

Today’s options chain shows Maximum Investor Pain at 5450.00.  Long gamma may begin at 5475.00 while short gamma starts beneath 5440.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are flat with gigatech naturally outperforming into today’s retail sales print where the expectations are for beats to resume after last month’s sharp miss. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were completely flat, while Nasdaq futures were up for the 7th day in a row as it nudges toward the 20,000 mark, with semi shares higher of course, while Mag7 names are also up small. European stocks rise for a second session as political premium fades while French government bonds drift as investors keep a close eye on political developments. Bond yields are up 1-2 bps across the curve after falling Monday amid a flurry of high-grade corporate bond sales that exceeded $21 billion. A gauge of the dollar was higher with EUR, GBP, and JPY weaker. Commodity markets are mostly lower, but WTI remains above $80/bbl with CTAs now set to buy over $30BN. The macro data focus is on Retail Sales but there is another batch of Fedspeakers; yesterday’s speakers indicated a still strong economy with no consensus among the path of inflation with risks tilted more towards a growth slowdown rather than another inflation spike.”



The INDU futures are also flat, but due for a final probe higher, but not to an all-time high.  The DJIA shows its all-time-high on May 20.  Normally the SPX more closely follows the Industrials with the NDX being the occasional outlier in the Cycles.  However, the Magnificent 7 had a larger weighting in the SPX than the DJIA, causing it to part ways with the Industrials.  So, both SPX and NDX are in an inversion to the normal Cycle.  You may recall that I had been predicting an all-time-high near May 18, which was a Saturday.  That prediction may still prove to be correct, since the correction in the DJIA may be over today.


VIX futures have also been trading flat in the overnight market.  You will notice that the VIX made its Master Cycle low on May 23, when the SPX put in its high.  However, the VIX did not make a new low, even though the SPX was making new highs.  There is no inversion here.  The VIX is simply waiting for the SPX final reversal, possibly due today.

Today’s op-ex shows Max Pain at 14.00-14.50.  Short gamma resides between 12.00 and 13.50.  Long gamma may begin at 15.00 and rises to 47.50.  A lot may depend on the timing of today’s possible reversal.


TNX declined to 42.35 this morning.  TNX has also been in an inversion, with money flow likely coming from a collapsing European market.  Note that TNX has about 3 weeks left in its Master Cycle.  The likelihood of a new low in the TNX may be declining.


USD futures declined this morning beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 105.04 and may be testing Intermediate support at 104.78.  Today is day 259 in the Master Cycle and a possible Master Cycle low.  An alternate view may be that the USD low may be due at the mid-Cycle support at 104.22.




This entry was posted in Published. Bookmark the permalink.