June 19, 2024

7:45 am.  I am leaving this morning for an out-of-state conference.  I will return on Monday, June 24. 

Good Morning!  Are you praying for our country?

SPX futures have risen to an overnight high of 5516.10, precisely in the center of the proposed target of 5510.00-5522.00.  This is not a place to linger on the long side to see what happens next.  Even the bullish analysts are beginning to suggest it’s time to hedge.  There is no sell signal, yet time and price are getting very thin.  The NYSE Hi-Lo Index shows only 27 companies out of 3300 have made new 52-week highs, compared to 283 last week.  The Magnificent 7 have pared down to the Magnificent 3.  The Cycles Model is proposing a possible surprise low by mid-July.  It may be time for a Key Reversal.

Today’s options chain shows Maximum Investor Pain at 5475.00.  Long gamma begins at 5500.00 while short gamma may start at 5450.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “After hitting the beach during yesterday’s blistering Juneteenth holiday, the “buy everything” algos are back and bigger than ever, pushing futures to a fresh all time high with tech leading – as always – and small-caps lagging after the Swiss National Bank unexpectedly cut rates for a second time this year, setting the stage for much more monetary easing. As of 8:00am, S&P 500 futures are up 0.4%, while the ongoing AI frenzy pushed Nasdaq 100 futures 0.6% higher, and are now up for an 8th straight day, the longest stretch since November.”



VIX futures are consolidating inside yesterday’s trading range.  VIX is signaling a potential change in trend, as it did not make new lows as the SPX made its ATH.  The Cycles Model infers the VIX may be at new highs by mid-July.

The June 26 options chain shows long gamma beginning at 13.00, but there is little or no conviction for VIX to rise appreciably above 20.  This is where surprised may occur.


TNX futures have risen to an overnight high at 42.59.  The Cycles Model suggests TNX may be making new highs by the second week of July.


The bounce in the BKX may have met its waterloo at the Intermediate resistance at 102.83.  If so, the ensuing decline may have a touch of panic.  However, there may be enough time to make a low at the Cycle bottom at 72.92.

the next visual support is at the mid-Cycle at 93.18.

I’ll write again on Monday.  Have a good weekend!



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