May 3, 2024

2:09 pm

SPX is rising back above its 50-day Moving Average at 5125.00.  The next hurdle is close by at 5138.00.  Once above thos3e hurdles, it may have a target of 5370.00-5400.00.  However, next week opens the door for a major Cycle Turn.  The catalyst for the turn may be surprising…


8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures are have overtaken yesterday’s high, rising to 5090.50 thus far and remains near that level.  The 50-day Moving Average is at 5122.00, a level to watch as the reaction to the jobs report comes in.  Should SPX go higher, it may accelerate the Master Cycle, as the “turn window” opens next week.  The Cycle Top is 5366.23,, the maximum high in a fifth Wave.

Today’s options chain shows Maximum Investor Pain at 5060.00.  Long gamma begins at 5075.00 while short gamma may start beneath 5050.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US stock futures pointed to further strength on Wall Street ahead of the April jobs report after solid earnings and a record buyback announcement from Apple As of 8:00am, S&P futures rise 0.3% while Nasdaq 100 contracts add 0.6% thanks to a 6% surge in Apple in premarket trading.  The dollar weakened for a third day, while Treasuries were steady. The US 10-year yield is down about 9 basis points this week at 4.57%, its first weekly drop since March, after Powell struck a less hawkish tone than feared. Traders have also pulled forward expectations for the Fed’s first full interest-rate cut by a month to November.”


VIX futures are consolidating above the Master Cycle low made on Wednesday.  The correction is very near its maximum pullback.  The Cycles Model may allow a rally starting today.

Wednesday’s op-ex shows Max Pain at 14.50.  Short gamma resides at 14.00 while long gamma starts at 15.00 and extends to 30.00.


TNX plunged to 44.53 thus far this morning, as it declined beneath Intermediate support at 44.63.  This has created a sell signal for TNX (a buy signal for UST (10-year Treasury bonds).

ZeroHedge observes, “US yields are at the margin more exposed to a lower-than-expected payrolls release today after Powell’s pushback on a rate hike this week. Nonetheless, leading indicators are pointing to an inflection higher in payrolls growth in the coming months.

Yields are off their recent highs, but are still prone to falling further if payrolls disappoints. My fair value model for 10-year yields, which uses global central-bank rate policy, the yield curve, oil prices and the Federal Reserve’s policy rate, suggests a 10-year yield ~40 bps lower.”


ZeroHedge announces, “‘Bad’ news is back to being good news for markets as a disappointing rise in payrolls pushed rate-cut expectations higher. 2024 is now fully pricing in two rate cuts and 2025 an additional three rate-cuts…

Source: Bloomberg

As Academy Securities’ Peter Tchir writes, this report should be very good for bonds.”


USD futures declined to 104.41 while the cash market sank to 104.52.  USD has declined beneath the Intermediate support at 104.89, creating a potential sell signal.  The 50-day lies beneath that at 104.37.  The current Master Cycle may run to May 18.  The Cycles Model shows a possibly dramatic uptick in volatility over the weekend.


Gold futures have plummeted to 2285.65 this morning, beneath Intermediate support at 2297..5 and confirming its sell signal.  The 50-day Moving average is at 2231.00 and may give more credence to the bears.  The Current Master Cycle may last to early June with a possible target of 1996.40.  This may not be an ordinary pullback.







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