May 2, 2024

7:45 am  I will be away for the day.  Perhaps tomorrow may bring more certainty.

Good Morning!

NDX futures rallied to an overnight high at 17502.50, a 57% retracement, but deflated back beneath the 100-day Moving Average at 17485.15.  The loss of critical support is telling, since the next support is at 16419.47.  This suggests the decline may have resumed with the Cycle bottom at 13850.54 being a possible target in the next 2-3 weeks.  However, should the 100-day Moving Average be surpassed, the near-term outlook may be positive.

Today’s options chain shows short gamma beneath 17390.00.  Watch that level today.


SPX futures bounced in the overnight session to 5057.40, a 50% retracement of the Wednesday afternoon decline.  This appears to be bearish, but SPX must decline beneath yesterday’s low at 5013.00 to confirm the sell signal.  The 1987 trendline lies near 4970.00, beneath which a panic decline may occur.  Assuming the Cycle turns at the regular time, we may see a decline lasting 2-3 weeks.  As an alternate, a “push” higher over the weekend may hasten the Cycle Pivot to next week, leaving a much more bearish scenario.

Today’s op-ex shows Max Pain at 5055.00.  Long gamma kicks in above 5075.00, whereas short gamma reigns beneath 5050.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “After a bizarre reversal when US stocks first slumped and then dumped after Powell’s very dovish FOMC statement and press conference, US equity futures have regained their footing this morning and advanced as traders took comfort from the Fed’s signal that there’s no plan to raise interest rates and looked ahead to Apple’s earnings after the close. As of 7:40am, S&P 500 contracts climbed 0.7%, while Nasdaq 100 contracts add 0.9% with Apple, and Nvidia all posting small gains in pre-market trading.”



VIX futures are consolidating this morning after having made a possible Master Cycle low yesterday at 14.35 on day 258.  However, there is just enough uncertainty to suggest a deeper low may be in the works.


TNX is barely positive this morning after yesterday’s dip beneath the trading range.  The Cycles Model calls for a possible decline lasting 2-3 weeks that may set the tone for equities, as well.  Traders’ attempt to front-run the June taper.  However, rising prices (including stocks and bonds) are inflationary and may nip the mythical taper in its tracks.

ZeroHedge comments, “More problematically, since the last FOMC meeting, inflation data has dramatically surprised to the upside and growth data to the downside – screaming stagflation in the face of the Fed…

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-cut expectations (for 2024 and 2025) have plunged significantly since the last FOMC (that is now just one 25bps rate-cut priced in for 2024)…

Source: Bloomberg

Expectations are fully priced for a nothing-burger today on rates…”




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