April 18, 2023

8:20 am

Good Morning!

Note:  I will be absent from blogging on Wednesday and Thursday.  Friday will be my next opportunity to comment.

NDX futures have risen to 13193.30 this morning.  As mentioned yesterday, NDX has yet another probe higher to complete the current Master Cycle.  A likely target is the Cycle Top resistance at 13506.60.  Today is day 245 in the current MasterCycle.  The move above 12880.98 has performed a reset on the Wave/Cycle structure.

Today’s op-ex shows Maximum Pain for options investors at 13025.00.  Calls rule above 13050 with long gamma beginning at 13100.00.  Short gamma may begin ant 12975.00.  Friday’s monthly op-ex shows long gamma beginning at 13000.00 with pockets of strength running to 13500.00.  Short gamma is practically nonexistent.  It is clear that long gamma holds sway over the options market until expiration on Friday.

ZeroHedge comments, “First, some context from Goldman’s Prime Brokerage: “our franchise flows have shifted to local selling of tech this week and Nasdaq is only up in two of the past ten sessions (also note that it stands exactly where it stood in … the spring of 2021).

In other words, might as well have sold in May of 2021 and gone away for two years, enjoying all the hikes, golfing and trips and you’d still be right where you left off. Instead, you overtraded every market move and lost money.”


SPX futures rose to 4173.00 this morning, approaching a breakout point at 4195.44, its February 2 high.  A likely target may be the Cycle Top resistance at 4270.28.  I have been asked, “Where are the violent post-2pm turnarounds coming from?”  Read the options analysis.

Today’s op-ex shows Max Pain at 4145.00 with possible long gamma starting at 4150.00 with strongholds at 4200.00 and 4250.00.  Short gamma begins at 4100.00, with a stronghold at 4050.00.  Long gamma may hold sway in today’s expiration.  Friday’s op-ex shows calls ruling from 4050.00 and up to 4250.00.  At 4000.00 the expiring calls number 78,646.00 while the puts number 90,803.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “We have said previously on more than one occasion that the bear market rally just won’t end until Wall Street’s two bearish cosplayers, Marko Kolanovic and Mike Wilson, throw in the towel and turn bearish…

… and sure enough, one day after both of these broken records published their latest weekly doom and gloom performance art meant solely to get institutional and retail investors to sell to their flow desks, futures have melted up even more, with spoos now trading a 2+ month high.”


VIX futures are down even further to 16.78 this morning on day 249 of the current Master Cycle.  Triangle formations are normally frustratingly long.  This particular formation takes the prize for maximum frustration.

Tomorrow’s op-ex shows Max Pain at 22.00 with options deep into short gamma, possibly down to 15.00.  Long gamma begins at 24.00 and stretches to 100.0.  With only one day left to expiry, it appears that short gamma rules another day.

Zerohedge proclaims, “The VIX guy is back

We haven’t heard from “our” VIX guy in a long time. He remains as the number one contrarian indicator when it comes to volatility. His latest reasoning is that we are entering a regime shift and that volatility will stay lower for much longer as “the market does not care about much”. Regular readers of TME know our general logic on protection and volatility: “do not buy protection when you must, buy it when you can”. We are getting very close to such a set up. Using options for directional bets (up/down) as well as protection is looking attractive. Time for a thread on volatility:

Say hello to inverse panic

SPX not even above the “magical” 4200, but VIX is in full crash mode. SPX vs the VIX 2nd month futures (inverted).”




This entry was posted in Published. Bookmark the permalink.

19 Responses to April 18, 2023

  1. I like the helpful info you provide on your articles.
    I will bookmark your weblog and check again here regularly.
    I am relatively sure I will be told many new stuff right
    here! Good luck for the following!

  2. Dominik says:

    Enjoyed examining this, very good stuff, regards.

    Visit my page bad crsdit loans, Dominik,

  3. I love reading an article that will make people think.

    Also, thanks for allowing me to comment!

  4. What i do not realize is in truth how you’re no longer actually much more well-liked than you may be now. You’re so intelligent. You realize therefore significantly when it comes to this topic, made me in my view imagine it from a lot of numerous angles. Its like men and women aren’t interested unless it is one thing to do with Girl gaga! Your personal stuffs nice. At all times handle it up!

  5. You have mentioned very interesting details! ps decent internet site.

  6. I have been browsing on-line greater than three hours nowadays, but I never found any fascinating article like yours. It is lovely price sufficient for me. In my opinion, if all website owners and bloggers made good content material as you probably did, the net will probably be a lot more helpful than ever before.

  7. Wonderful web site. Lots of helpful information here. I¦m sending it to some pals ans also sharing in delicious. And certainly, thanks to your sweat!

  8. Appreciate it for this howling post, I am glad I observed this site on yahoo.

  9. You made some good points there. I did a search on the subject matter and found most persons will go along with with your blog.

  10. WONDERFUL Post.thanks for share..more wait .. …

  11. whoah this blog is fantastic i love reading your posts. Keep up the great work! You know, lots of people are searching around for this information, you can aid them greatly.

  12. I’m still learning from you, as I’m trying to achieve my goals. I certainly liked reading everything that is written on your website.Keep the tips coming. I liked it!

  13. Good ?V I should certainly pronounce, impressed with your web site. I had no trouble navigating through all the tabs and related information ended up being truly simple to do to access. I recently found what I hoped for before you know it in the least. Quite unusual. Is likely to appreciate it for those who add forums or anything, web site theme . a tones way for your customer to communicate. Nice task..

  14. I¦ve read several excellent stuff here. Certainly value bookmarking for revisiting. I surprise how much attempt you set to create one of these fantastic informative web site.

  15. Good V I should definitely pronounce, impressed with your website. I had no trouble navigating through all the tabs and related information ended up being truly simple to do to access. I recently found what I hoped for before you know it at all. Quite unusual. Is likely to appreciate it for those who add forums or anything, site theme . a tones way for your client to communicate. Nice task..

  16. This design is spectacular! You most certainly know how to keep a reader entertained. Between your wit and your videos, I was almost moved to start my own blog (well, almost…HaHa!) Great job. I really enjoyed what you had to say, and more than that, how you presented it. Too cool!

  17. tlovertonet says:

    I haven¦t checked in here for a while as I thought it was getting boring, but the last few posts are great quality so I guess I¦ll add you back to my daily bloglist. You deserve it my friend 🙂

  18. I gotta bookmark this web site it seems very useful very helpful

  19. It?¦s actually a nice and useful piece of info. I?¦m glad that you shared this useful info with us. Please keep us informed like this. Thanks for sharing.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *