March 21, 2023

9:00 am

SPX futures are going higher after the March 13 Master Cycle low.  As expected, it was later than usual, on day 269.  The Cycles Model suggests a probable quick turn back down in the next few days.  Meanwhile, a possible target for this retracement rally may be at the 50-day Moving Average near 4000.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “It’s only appropriate that the day after the weekly dose of doom and gloom from Marko Kolanovic and Mike Wilson, that stocks soar to the highest level in almost two weeks. S&P futures spiked above 4,000 on Tuesday as fears about turmoil in the global banking sector subsided, following a Bloomberg report that the Biden admin was considering insuring all deposits (unclear exactly how they will credibly insure all $18 trillion in deposits, some 75% of US GDP but whatever) followed by an FT article this morning previewing Janet Yellen’s speech at the American Bankers Association on Tuesday in which the Treasury Secretary will signal further US government backing for deposits at smaller American banks if needed, “a shift that seeks to protect parts of the country’s banking system struggling in the recent financial turmoil.”


VIX futures are trending lower to an overnight low of 22.59.  It has gone beneath the mid-Cycle support at 23.78.  It may revisit the 50-day Moving Average at 20.61 in the next few days.  The Cycles Model suggests the VIX may regain strength by next week and proceed above the Triangle formation.


The February sell signal in BKX was prescient, as it led to a 32.6% decline from the top.  The decline isn’t over yet, as it may regain strength going into it’s Master Cycle low due at the end of March.  There are some indications that the banking crisis may extend into early April.  If so, a banking crisis panic may spread through other sectors in the economy…and the markets.

ZeroHedge reports, “The sound and fury of demands for universal deposit insurance are growing with Bill Ackman and Elon Musk the latest to join the calls for this ultimate step and as we detailed last night, Bloomberg reports Washington is studying just how to guarantee all $18 trillion in US deposits (with just $125 billion in the FDIC’s Deposit Insurance Fund).

“US officials are studying ways they might temporarily expand Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. coverage to all deposits, a move sought by a coalition of banks arguing that it’s needed to head off a potential financial crisis.”



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