The Practical Investor

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

StockCharts has updated their systems, but has left the old methods in the dust without warning.  I am trying to restore my research on the new system, but it may take a while, as I am still learning the new stuff.  Please bear with me as I fumble through the conversion process.  It may take a while.

Good Morning!

SPX futures have risen to 6337.90 in the overnight session, then settled back in a consolidation.  The Monday high at 6336.08 remains the all-time high.  Speculation is rife, with 70% of trading volume in call options.  Snake charmers have a better chance of survival than most speculators at this point.  The Cycles Model is at its tipping point.  A decline beneath yesterday’s low at 6281.71 may bring a reversal/sell signal.  The next levels of support lie at 6200.00, then at 6135.00 .  The most commonly used sell signal lies beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 6039.03, nearly 5% beneath the peak.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6315.00.  Long gamma becomes an issue above 6325.00 while short gamma strengthens beneath 6300.00.  This market may  be susceptible to explosive moves in either direction.

VIX futures declined to 15.94, testing the “floor.”  This is not a time to kick back and go to the beach.  The Cycles Model suggests the VIX may break out above the 50-day Moving Average at 18.24 and the declining wedge formation near 19.00 by the weekend.

TNX futures declined to 43.54, challenging the 200-day Moving Average at 43.67.  it has since risen above it and may challenge the 50-day Moving Average at 44.09.  Should it rise above the 50-day, a buy signal (sell signal for UST) may be made.  This may launch a powerful rally lasting to the end of September in TNX.  The betting in the market is that Powell may make an early exit, with rates falling 100 bps or more by December.  That may be wishful thinking.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:50 am

SPX futures are consolidating in a very narrow range, between 6299.00 and 6315.00.  The buyback window is opening again, suggesting corporate buyers may be returning.  Retail flows are strong.  However, they are showing a propensity toward 0DTE options, with retail behavior becoming more and more speculative.  This is a sign of an aging bull market, with investors increasingly using leverage to boost potential returns…and potential losses.  Meanwhile, hedge funds are becoming increasingly bearish.

The Cycles Model remains calm, on day 277 of the Master Cycle.  The rising trendline is at 6270.00 – 6275.00.  A potential sell signal lies beneath it.  However, only a few analysts will not recognize it until the SPX declines beneath 6200.00.  Most analysts are likely to view the 50-day Moving Average at 6025.51 as the focal point of a potential sell signal.  Meanwhile, the speculative mania may continue until serious losses set in.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6315.00.  Long gamma may begin above 6350.00 while short gamma may exist beneath 6250.00.

VIX futures rose to 17.00 this morning.  Overhead resistance is at 18.17 – 18.50.  The VIX-on-the-floor is supportive of equities for the time being.  However, volatility picks up at the end of the week and accelerates into mid-August.

The July 23 options chain shows Max Pain at 17.00.  Short gamma resides between 14.00 and 16.00.  Long gamma resides between 19.00 and 30.00.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to a new high at 6316.60 this morning.  It has since pulled back near the high.  Since the April 7 low, the SPX has rallied 1480 points, a 30.61% return in that 102 days.  This may be called a Teflon rally, since it defied all expectations.  Many are calling for the rally to continue.  The Cycles Model has no anticipation of big moves for the balance of July. However, the rally has all the earmarks of exhaustion.  In addition, NATO is beating the drums of war and we will not be exempt.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6295.00.  Long gamma may begin above 6300.00 and stretches to 6400.00.  Short gamma begins beneath 6260 and has a long tail, as well.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher and approaching a new record high. Over the weekend, headlines were relatively muted in the US, while globally, Japan’s ruling party lost its majority in the upper house, but PM Ishiba still pledged to stay in office in a creeping setup for the latest Japanese political crisis. While the yen has rallied overnight after Japan’s ruling coalition loses its majority in the upper house election, this appears to be a kneejerk reaction with Japanese markets closed today; expect much more weakness for the JPY as Japan now opens the fiscal stimulus floodgates forcing the BOJ to monetize much more Japanese debt. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are both up 0.2% and Europe’s Stoxx 600 Index posted small moves. In premarket trading Mag 7 shares are higher: TSLA (+1.6%) leading gains, followed by GOOGL (+0.9%) and META (+0.6%); the only exception is Microsoft which was down 0.2% after a cyberattack. Utilities and Consumer Discretionary are outperforming. The yen strengthened 0.7% while the dollar slipped. After last week’s selloff, Treasuries  yields are lower: 2-, 5-, 10-, 30yr yields are 2bp, 3bp, 4bp lower. Commodities are mixed with base and precious metals higher and oil lower.

VIX futures have risen to 16.99 over the weekend.  This is a good time to accumulate hedges, as VIX is quite inexpensive compared to the elevated values in the SPX.

USD futures have declined to 97.71 this morning and may continue to the trendline at 97.00.  USD shorts may be heaving a sigh of relief, as the USD was turned back at the 50-day Moving Average.  However, USD may hit a patch of volatility by the weekend, positioning it to rally higher afterwards.

TNX has declined to test the 200-day Moving Average at 43.61 this morning.  It may languish there for the balance of the week, but there is a disturbance in the force that may reveal itself this weekend.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:50 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures ar hovering between 6299.00 and 6317.00 this morning, in anticipation of $2.8 trillion of notional options expiring today.  Currently the sentiment is pretty evenly divided between puts and calls with 6300.00 in dead center.  The Cycles Model does not anticipate any big moves in either direction.  However, the wild card may be the high percentage of 0DTE players awaiting on the sidelines.  Calls fall off precipitously above 6350.00, while the puts may be the land mine.  There is a worry about a major shift in gamma exposure.

Today’s morning options chain shows Max Pain at 6300.00.  Long gamma resides from 6315.00 to 6350.00.  Short gamma starts at 6260.00 with a long tail lower.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are flat even as the global equity rally extended into Europe, following Friday’s gains in Asia and Thursday’s record close on Wall Street. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are unchanged while Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.1% after NFLX had a solid report, but market reactions were muted amid high expectations. Europe’s Stoxx 600 initially rose 0.4% but has since erased gains, with Energy stocks outperforming and tracking a two-day advance in oil prices as Brent crude futures climb 1.2% to above $70 per barrel. Pre-market in the US, megacap tech sees NVDA up modestly (+0.4%), followed by AAPL and GOOGL. Consumer Staples and Financials are outperforming. The dollar and 2Y rates dropped after Fed Governor Christopher Waller repeated his recent view that the Fed should cut 25bps this month. Yields are lower and USD is weaker; 2-, 5-, 10-, and 30-year yields are down by 1-2bps. Commodities are mixed, with Oil and Precious Metals higher, while Base Metals are flat. The combined value of cryptoassets soared beyond $4 trillion for the first time, fueled by a surge in Ethereum and momentum from a legislative push to regulate the sector. Looking at today’s calendar, the US economic data slate includes June housing starts (8:30am) and July preliminary University of Michigan sentiment (10am). Fed speaker slate includes only Waller, and Fed officials’ external communications blackout ahead of their July 30 decision starts Saturday”

VIX futures declined to 16.41, testing its “floor.”  The Master Cycle low occurred on July 10 and there is little reason to extend beyond today, if at all.  The Cycles Model anticipates a rally in the VIX lasting to late August.  Trending strength appears next week.  Today is a good day to accumulate shares.

TNX is drifting lower, with the possibility of reaching the 50-da Moving Average at 44.06 today.  There is a volatility ticking time bomb waiting today.  A distinct possibility may be a phase reversal, which may allow the TNX to go much higher.  Should it do so, TNX may be on the ascendancy through mid-September.

USD futures are pulling back to test Intermediate support at 98.09 or the trendline at or just below 98.00.  The Cycles Model also calls for a powerful move by day’s end, which may allow the USD to launch higher over the next three weeks.

Bitcoin futures are moving higher.  The current trend may last another two weeks, according to the Cycles Model.  Bitcoin is one of the most favored investments in times of stress.  In Europe, the drums of war are beating louder, while the Bank of Japan is in crisis mode this weekend.  There is little wonder that Bitcoin is going higher.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures peaked in the overnight market at 6272.10, remaining beneath the rising trendline near 6275.00.  The trendline continues to rise at 10.9 points per day.  Institutions have pared back their longs through quarterly rebalancing and have no incentive to  increase their exposure early in the second half of the year.  This leaves the mechanical buyers such as the Commercials and the retail crowd to pick up the slack.   Retail activity has picked up to the highest its been since 2018.  Cash levels, on the other hand, have declined beneath 4%, a critical level for market liquidity.  That being said, the Cycles Model doesn’t show heightened volatility until the second week of August.  That suggests the SPX may remain range-bound above the 50-day Moving Average at 5987.86 for the next couple of weeks, implying the retail longs may become even more crowded.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are flat, trading in a narrow range overnight, with SPX unchanged, while Nasdaq futs rise after TSMC beat on sales guidance. Since yesterday’s close, incremental macro headlines were muted, but earnings reports were solid (TSM, UAL). As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are unchanged, Nasdaq futs are up 0.1% boosted by a positive outlook from TSMC, and Rusell 2000 futs are down 0.4%. European stocks also advance with the Stoxx 600 up 0.7%, led by gains in industrial, construction and auto sectors. In Pre-market trading, megacap tech is higher, with NVDA (+0.8%) leading gains, followed by META (+0.7%) and AAPL (+0.3%) as TSMC’s raised outlook is a good sign that spending on AI is holding up; on sector basis, Health Care and Real Estate are outperforming. Yields are 1-2bp higher and the dollar staged a comeback as dip-buyers stepped in, following Wednesday’s brief bout of panic over the future of Powell. Commodities are mixed, with oil and iron ore higher, while base and precious metals are lower. Today, markets will focus on Retail Sales (8:30am), Jobless Claims (8:30am), Philly Fed Business Outlook (8:30am), NAHB Housing Mkt Index (10am), Fed speakers Kugler (9:15am), Daly (12:45pm), Cook (1:30pm), Waller (6:30pm). We also get earnings from ABT, CFG, CTAS, ELV, FITB, GE, MAN, MMC, PEP, TRV, USB before the market; while after the close we get: IBKR, NFLX, SFNC, WAL.”

VIX futures remain beneath the 50-day Moving Average in a consolidation pattern.  The fact that it very briefly broke above the 50-day indicates a buy signal, but most technicians may remain short or neutral pending a breakout above the declining wedge formation and mid-Cycle support/resistance at 19.66.  Be aware that the current position affords an ideal condition for accumulating shares.

USD futures have risen above the 50-day Moving Average at 98.82 this morning, turning up the pain levels for the USD shorts.  The Cycles Model suggests the pain levels may remain heightened for the next three weeks as short covering may rule the USD.  Current positioning may have set off a buy signal for the commercials as the 50-day is a powerful trigger point for the CTAs.

TNX futures made a new high at 44.97 while the cash market topped at 44.93 as it goes into a brief consolidation.  TNX may pull back to the 50-day Moving Average at 44.04. However, the Cycles Model suggests a burst of energy tomorrow may nullify the retracement.

Zerohedge observes, “Many were shocked (again) after the latest CPI and PPI data confirmed that the experts were once again dead wrong, and instead of the widely expected inflation tsunami, Trump’s tariffs have so far sparked only continued disinflation (which will only become more acute as home prices slide). And yet, anyone who read our Beige Book analysis from April (not to mention our accurate prediction from last June that “The Experts Are All Wrong About Inflation Under A Trump Presidency“) would have known just that: as we laid out, “Beige Book Finds Inflation Mentions Tumble To 3 Year Low” which was the clearest indication that despite the prevailing narrative, rising prices is simply not a thing businesses across the US are worried about. We got further confirmation of this last month, when the latest Beige Book found no runaway inflation (again) but instead that sentiment in the economy splitting along party lines.”

Bitcoin futures have fallen beneath the Cycle Top at 118154.57.  While it is in the early stages of a reversal window, it may not be finished to the upside.  The Cycles Model suggests rising volatility/strength over the weekend which may offer directionality for the next two weeks.  Money flows suggest capital may be fleeing Europe and Japan.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

11:53 am

VIX has broken out of its declining wedge formation, giving a buy signal.  It has also risen above the 50-day Moving Average at 18.64, adding confirmation to that signal.

11:41 am

BKX slipped beneath its three-month trendline, giving a sell signal.  The Cycles Model infers the decline may last to mid-August.  Ending Diagonal formations often completely retrace themselves suggesting the target of this decline may be the April low.  Should it venture beneath the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation, the decline may be much deeper.

7:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures completed its Key Reversal during the after hours by declining to 6217.50.  It has since bounced back to retest the bottom parameter of the Key Reversal at 6239.00.  Key reversals have been known to be reliable buy/sell signals.  Further confirmation was made with the trendline crossing at 6250.00 – 6255.00.  The trendline is rising at a pace of 10.9  points per day, leaving it closer to 6265.00 today.  The next lower support lies at 6079.08 which may add further confirmation of a sell signal.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures and global stocks dropped, but were well off session lows, as a stream of negative tariff headlines and dialed-back expectations for interest-rate cuts prompted doubts about the market’s ability to sustain recent highs and sent 30Y yields above 5%, a level seen as a redline for further stock appreciation. As of 7:00am, the S&P 500 was on track for a second straight decline, with futures down 0.1% after , while Nasdaq futures were 0.3% lower after closing at a record; the small-caps Russell 2000 is seeing an early outperformance bid. Pre-mkt, Mag7/semis are mixed as are Cyclicals with Banks seeing an offer into the next batch of earnings. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 slipped 0.2%, weighed down by technology shares as ASML Holding NV trimmed its growth outlook for next year, citing trade tensions; French car giant Renault slumped 16% after slashing its profit guidance. Treasury yields are flat as is the USD. Commodities are mostly higher with Ags leading, precious metals following while energy is modestly weaker. Today’s macro data focus is the PPI data which will give more clues about how tariffs are affecting companies after mixed CPI numbers. We have another batch of Fedspeakers who will say nothing of importance.”

VIX futures consolidated in the overnight market.  The SPX reversal may have caught hedgers by surprise yesterday.  There appears to be a wait-and-see approach to yesterday’s reversal.  The declining wedge offers a breakout point above 17.85 where a buy signal may be offered.  In the meantime, the 50-day Moving Average is at 18.73, where recognition of the change in trend may be realized.  Don’t ignore it, as it may offer a unique profit opportunity for those aware of the potential for profit.  The Cycles Model suggests that the downtrend may be broken today.

ZeroHedge observes, “2025 is playing out much like we anticipated.  The US economy keeps slowly weakening even as the equity markets remain elevated.  Meanwhile, the Chinese economy is rapidly deteriorating, less so Europe and non-China Asia.

Equity markets don’t reflect the degree of economic malaise that exists across the globe because global central banks have learned that equity markets are key indicators for inspiring economic confidence.  It’s why China and Europe are experiencing strong equity performance.  It won’t last.”

USD futures made a buy signal yesterday by crossing above Intermediate support/resistance at 98.14.  Today is may test the 50-day Moving Average at  98.83, potentially setting off a firestorm of short covering.  The past six months have been good to the USD shorts…until it’s not.  The ensuing rally may take the USD above the mid-cycle resistance at 103.59, where shorts may abandons all hope.  The Cycles Model suggests another three weeks of high velocity rally, starting today.

TNX futures rose to an overnight high at 44.95 before easing back down.  This may mark the end of the current Master Cycle, suggesting a pullback to relieve the overbought condition.  The mid-Cycle support at 43.84 may provide a cushion for the retracement.  However, the Cycles Model warns of a rise in velocity by the end of the week.  This indicates a possible phase-shift, sending yields considerably higher.

The Japanese Yen may have reached its Master Cycle low this morning’s futures at 67.03.  A reversal may be underway in the futures but not yet shown in the charts.  The Cycles Model warns of an acceleration of the new trend as early as tomorrow.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

3:17 pm

As SPX loses its trend, so does the BKX.  Note that the BKX rose from its April 7 bottom to its top on July 7 in 91 days.  It is now testing its trendline at 140.00.  A sell signal may be given at the break of this trendline.  Bank balance sheets have been stretched significantly.  Remember that BKX bottomed at at 17.75 in the last financial crisis on March 9, 2009.  It’s time to take profits.  Super Cycles last about 26 years.

1:05 pm

SPX has crossed its trendline at 6260.00 – 6265.00.  Should the SPX close beneath 6239.00 we would have a key reversal.  Technical analysis indicates this may be a sell signal.   While the margin seems thin, any additional decline may make the change in trend more evident.

8:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 6299.70, then pulled back prion to the CPI report.  All else considered until now, the current Master Cycle may have ended on Thursday, July 10 at 6290.22.  The alternate view may be a spike higher to round number resistance at 6300.00 prior to a possible key reversal.  The CPI will be examined carefully to see if the tariffs are having an impact on inflation.  Here is the report.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher, led by Tech with the biggest overnight news being that Trump is allowing NVDA to resume its (less advanced) H2O chip sales to China; there had been chatter of a chips-for-rare earths pact to thaw US/China trade relations.  As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rose 0.3%, while Nasdaq futures rose 0.5%, with NVDA jumping another +5.3% in pre-market trading, while AMD +3.5%, MRVL +2.85, AVGO +1.4% also gained. The balance of Mag7 is mostly higher; semis are poised to be the best sub-group, and cyclicals are higher with banks with a mild bid into earnings this morning. Bond yields are lower as the curve bull flattens into CPI with JPM noting that some FICC client convos are pointing to a dovish CPI print. The USD is weaker and commodities are declining across all 3 complexes though precious, crude, and sugar remain bid. Today’s focus is the unofficial kick off 25Q2 earnings and Banks have a low bar to cross and CPI is not yet expected to reflect the expected inflation from the trade war.”

VIX futures slipped to 16.59 this morning.  The CPI report has little discernible effect on the markets thus far.  While a possible Master Cycle low may have been established on Thursday, the Cycles Model may allow a final probe lower.

TNX is declining this morning after expanding its Master Cycle low to yesterday at 44.47.  It may retest the 200-day Moving Average at 43.47 or possibly a bit lower over the next 2-3 weeks.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am  

Good Morning!

SPX futures dove to 6218.30, challenging the Ending Diagonal trendline near 6225.00 this weekend.  Last Thursday’s Master Cycle high was extended a full 30 days beyond its average length, an unusual event.    The Cycles Model now anticipates approximately 40 days of decline.  A sell signal may be obtained at the crossing beneath the trendline.  There aare few, if any, anomalies in the Cycles Model until mid-August, when volatility breaks loose in a big way.  That doesn’t mean the excitement cannot begin sooner.  There is about $7 trillion on the sidelines, leading analysts to anticipate a further melt-up in equities and bitcoin.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are lower, although well off session lows, and European stocks slumped after Trump’s weekend threat to slap 30% tariffs on EU and Mexico, providing a test for markets that were recently at record highs. With global yields blowing out, as German and Japanese long-dated bonds slumped as traditional safe havens were ignored, amid the risk-off tone the only flight to safety today are cryptocurrencies and precious metals, with Bitcoin surging to a new record high of $122,000 while silver rose above $39 for the first time since 2011. As of 8:00am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are down 0.3% after Trump said the tariff rates will kick in on Aug. 1 if the EU and Mexico can’t negotiate better terms, and investors will need to make the call on whether he’s going to follow through this time, with Mag 7 names mostly lower premarket with NVDA/TSLA in the green. Semis are also under pressure and cyclicals and defensives are mixed, pointing to a choppy session. The Treasury yield curve is seeing a slight bear steepening while the USD is flat. Commodities are stronger across all 3 complexes with crude, nat gas and silver the standouts. A flurry of economic data is in focus this week, with CPI due on Tuesday and PPI on Wednesday plus the unofficial start to earnings season with all the big banks reporting.”

VIX futures rose to 17.85 over the weekend, leasing the Thursday low as the potential Master Cycle low.  The VIX Cycle allowed compression which, it turn, gave the green light to stocks last week.  Tha;t may now be over, or nearly so.

TNX broke above its July 9 high at 44.35 this morning.  This may end up as a false move, as the retracement appears incomplete.  Should that be the case, we may see TNX decline to the Cycle Bottom near 40.77.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Note:  I am going to my last radiation treatment this morning.  Considering how the prior treatments went, I may not have the energy for any lengthy analysis.

Good Morning!

SPX futures decline to the trendline near 6233.00 this morning, then bounced.  The 50% retracement level for the bounce is near 6260.00.  It appears that, once the retracement is finished, the decline may be underway until late August.  A sell signal may be had at a decline beneath 6225.00-6230.00.  The attempts to encourage “buying the dips” may have drained what little liquidity is left in the market.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:15 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures traded overnight in a narrow range, approaching the open near the flat line.  Yesterday’s attempt to break out prior to the FOMC release failed.   The steep diagonal trendline lies near 6200.00.  Beneath it a sell signal awaits.  Ending Diagonals often retrace themselves, once complete.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6260.00.  Long gamma may arise above 6275.00 while short gamma resides beneath 6210.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are flat, reversing an earlier loss but lagging the Asia-Pac and EMEA sessions, following the latest batch of tariff letters with the most impactful being a 50% tariff on Brazil. As of 8:15am ET, S&P and Nasdaq futures are flat after closing just shy of an all-time high on Wednesday. Pre-market, Mag7 names are mixed with NVDA leading the Semis bid post positive TSM revenue update. Treasuries resumed their decline after Wednesday’s rebound, with the 10-year yield rising two basis points to 4.35%. The dollar was steady. Cmdtys are rebounding with bids across all 3 complexes with gold, steel, and natgas the standout performers. Today’s macro data focus is on initial jobless claims and continuing claims.”

VIX futures also remain in a narrow range, with a slight uplift as the market nears its open. Yesterday’s downdraft may have marked the end of seasonality favoring stocks.

Next Wednesday’s options chain shows Max Pain at 20.00, suggesting a reversion to the mean may be in order.  Short gamma lies between 15.00 and 19.00, while long gamma lies above 21.00 and stretches to 50.00.