The Practical Investor

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 6405.70 over the weekend and are currently stalled at round number resistance (6400.00).  The Cycles Model anticipates the first possible major break in the uptrend about to occur with an acceleration of the decline by mid-week.  While commercials continue to buy, hedge funds became sellers last week and retail participation has thinned.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6385.00.  Long gamma comes in strong above 6400.00, while short gamma rules beneath 6350.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are up small with Russell/small caps outperforming, and yields dip at the start of a data-heavy week that will be pivotal for the Fed’s rate cuts later this year. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 contracts rose 0.2% after the index ended Friday just shy of a record high; Nasdaq futures were flat. In premarket trading, AMD fell 2.3% and NVDA was 1% lower after the chipmakers agreed to remit to the US government 15% of their revenue from AI chip sales to China in exchange for export licenses. Bond yields are lower as the curve flattens and the USD rises. Cmdtys are lower with Energy/Metals weaker but Ags stronger. Meanwhile, Trump asked China to increase soybeans purchases 4x ahead of tomorrow’s trade deadline although Lutnick last week said another extension is likely. Geopolitics is also in focus with a larger impact on EMEA and the Trump/Putin summit this Friday. Bitcoin rises back to $122K and Ethereum surge to $4350 overnight, hitting the highest since 2021. There are no major macro data prints today but market will focus on CPI on Tuesday.”

VIX futures are holding steady above Friday’s low.  Overhead resistance is at 16.68.  A probe above that level reinforces the buy signal.  The Cycles Model agrees that the uptrend is about to resume, with strength, this week.

The August 13 options chain shows  short gamma at 15.00-16.00.  Long gamma begins at 17.00 and remains strong to 25.00.

TNX is trading mid-range between its Master Cycle low, made last Monday, and Intermediate resistance at 43.37.  A rise above that level gives a buy signal that may extend to late September.  Note the Head & Shoulders formation that hints of higher rates ahead.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Mainstream economists were surprised last week after Donald Trump closed two massive trade and tariff deals, the first with Japan and the second with the EU. And this happened without triggering an economic crash.

The deal with Europe in particular has made a number of critics look rather foolish; there’s an army of mainstream economists who might reasonably acknowledge they misjudged the situation. But we all know that economists never admit their mistakes.”

USD futures have risen above the 50-day Moving Average at 98.24 this morning, giving a very strong buy signal.  There is still a massive dollar short contingent that may start feeling the pain of a squeeze.  The Cycles Model indicates a possible rise in the USD to mid-September.  Trending strength may appear by mid-week.

Euro futures are pulling away from being repelled from the Intermediate resistance at 116.60 and may be about to test the 50-day Moving Average at 115.84.  The Euro is currently on a sell signal and a further decline beneath the 50-day Moving Average offers reinforcement to that signal.  The Cycles Model suggests the Euro may decline with strength into early September as the War drums beat louder and investors flee the danger zone.

Gold futures may have declined beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 3346.56 today, creating a potential sell signal.   If correct, the Cycles Model anticipates a decline until early September.   A possible target may be the trendline near 33100.00.  A secondary target may be near the mid-Cycle support at 3036.54.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:15 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures bounced to 6366.00 this morning as investors continue to buy the dip.  However, each successive bounce becomes smaller and unable to make new highs.  The case in point, the bounce from Friday’s low retraced 82%, while this morning’s retracement was 70%.  Meanwhile, support at 6310.00 is eroding and may be unable to preserve the “uptrend.”  SPX is on an aggressive sell signal.  A decline beneath Intermediate support at 6257.99 upgrades the sell to “confirmed.”  The 50-day Moving Average at 6155.98 holds the key to universal recognition that the “uptrend” is broken.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6345.00.  Long gamma is available above 6350.00 while short gamma resides beneath 6300.00.  The wild card is the 0DTE traders who may pile on in any directional move.

RealInvestmentAdvice considers, “While the market steadily rose throughout June and July, corporate insiders were growing less enthusiastic about the stock market. Less than a third of S&P 500 companies saw insiders purchase stock in their own company in July. That is the lowest figure since 2018. Moreover, the ratio of buys to sells for insiders fell to almost half of its longer-term average and now sits at its second-lowest reading in four years. Per Bloomberg’s article “Corporate Insiders Were Dumping Stocks Into July’s Record Rally“”

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures rise at the end of a week in which markets were buffeted by tariffs, geopolitical developments and corporate earnings. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures were up 0.3%, with the underlying index on track for its biggest weekly gain in five. Nasdaq 100 futures gained 0.4% as the AI narrative gets more fuel from TSMC and Softbank. In premarket trading, MegaCap Tech sees NVDA leading gains (+0.7%); sectors like Utilities and Consumer Staples are outperforming. Intel rises after CEO Lip-Bu Tan said he’s got the backing of the company’s board, following Trump’s call for his resignation; Tesla slipped after disbanding its Dojo team, upending its effort to build a supercomputer for driverless-vehicle technology. Headlines were quiet since yesterday’s close with no major macro data reporting today. The next key catalyst will be August 12 CPI release. Trump nominated CEA Chair Stephen Miran to fill Kugler’s expiring term which prompted JPM to now see a 25bp cut in September (vs. his previous December call), following by three 25bps cut in the next three meetings. Yields are flat and USD is lower. Commodities are mixed with oil and precious metals higher, while base metals are flat. Gold is in focus after US Customs and Border Protection clarified that Swiss 1kg and 100oz gold bars are subject to reciprocal tariffs. Otherwise its pretty quiet to close out the week with no major data and Fed’s Musalem speaking at 10:20am.”

VIX futures hovered near yesterday’s low beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 16.89.  The Cycles Model anticipates a show of strength this weekend, followed by multiple panic rallies over the next two weeks.  This may take investors by total surprise as there is little hedging to date.

The August 13 options chain shows short gamma residing at 15.00-16.00.  Long gamma starts at 17.00, but only extends to 25.00.

The 10-year Treasury bond yield remains beneath the triple resistance at 43.37-43.91.  There is still a chance of a final probe lower to the Cycle Bottom at 41.06, but it is diminishing quickly.  The Cycles Model suggests a very strong move higher on Monday which has the potential of resuming the uptrend.

ZeroHedge observes, “After two decidedly ugly auctions, including a poor 3Y on Tuesday and a very poor 10Y yesterday, moments ago the Treasury concluded the week’s trio of refunding auctions when it sold $25BN in 30Y paper. And this particular auction may have been the worst of the lot.

The final refunding auction priced at a high yield of 4.813%, which while lower than July’s 4.889% was not low enough, and with the When Issued at 4.792%, the auction tailed the When Issued by 2.1bps, the biggest tail since last August.”

USD futures have risen this morning after having made a probable Master Cycle low at 97.94 yesterday.  It has challenged the 50-day Moving Average at 98.28.  Should it close above it, there may be a buys signal on USD.  The Cycles Model suggests a probable rally to mid-September, anticipating a rise to the mid-Cycle support/resistance at 102.97.

Gold futures rose to 3534.10 while spot prices (chart) lag as it winds up its Master Cycle.  The tariff on Swiss gold has upended the market temporarily, causing a possible reversal that may last to September.  There  is no shortage of gold in the US.  The tariff is meant to curb the trade deficit.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

3:26 pm

SPX has been challenging Sort-term support at 6314.00 this afternoon.  While t is possible that support may hold yet today, the Cycles Model suggests the decline may imminently reassert itself leading to a series of waterfall declines starting next week.  Best to be prepared sooner than later.

8:10 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures have risen to an overnight high at 6401.80.  The former “buy the dip” investors are now buying the top, as they have lost all fear of the elevated risk.  The NYSE Hi-Lo index closed at -24.00 yesterday, setting off warning bells for those that are aware that decliners have now outpaced advancers.  There is serious liquidation under the surface, while the number of advancers become smaller and smaller.  The SPX is trading above support at 6300.00.  Should that level break, the sell signal changes from aggressive to confirmed.  Further confirmation lies beneath Intermediate support at 6247.00 while the 50-day Moving Average waits at 6146.00.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6340.00.  Long gamma strengthens above 6370.00 while short gamma prevails beneath 6300.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are – what else – higher, and rapidly approaching a new all time high, boosted by exemptions in Trump’s plans for 100% tariffs on chips that are seen as bullish ways for most big tech firms to avoid levies. The mood was also cheered by a report that Trump and Putin are expected to meet for summit talks in the next few days while
hopes for a rate cut rise some more as additional  Fed officials have dovish pivots. As of 8:15am ET, S&P futures are up 0.6% and Nasdaq 100 futures gain 0.7% with Mag7 higher led by AAPL while Semis are the global standout. Eli Lilly & shares plunged after the drugmaker reported underwhelming study results for its weight-loss pill. Shares of its main European rival, Novo Nordisk A/S, soared. Cyclicals are poised to rip, although as JPM notes “today appears to be setting up for an ‘Everything Rally’.” Bond yields are down 1bp across the curve but 10Y is +1bp; USD is flat but has erased ~25bp of overnight losses. Today’s macro data focus is on Jobless Claims, 1Y Inflation Expectations, Nonfarm Productivity, Labor Costs, Consumer Credit, and Inventories. While none, ex-Claims, are market moving it will help sharpen the macro picture on the labor market and consumer. At 12pm, Trump will sign an executive order that aims to allow private equity, real estate, cryptocurrency and other alternative assets in 401(k)s.”

VIX futures declined to 15.98, giving a nod to the short gamma crowd at options expiration.  Note that a buy signal has been issued, offering a chance at highly discounted hedge.  However, the offer is being ignored by the crowd, who believe they are invincible.  The Cycles Model suggests we may see the VIX resume its ascent by the weekend, with trending strength becoming evident next week.

The VIX August 13 options chain shows short gamma at 15.00-16.00.  Long gamma may begin above 17.00, but shows a singular lack of conviction as all eyes are on the bounce.

The 10-year Treasury Yield is consolidating this morning above its provisional Master Cycle low on Tuesday.  There is an outside chance that TNX may yet probe lower in the next few days.  The Cycles Model suggests that there may be a strong reversal day early next week, so we wait patiently for a signal that the uptrend is resuming.

ZeroHedge reports, “After yesterday’s dismal 3Y auction, markets were on edge ahead of today’s $42 billion reopening of the 10Y benchmark auction. And they had a good reason to be: the just concluded 10Y auction was not pretty.

Starting at the top, the auction stopped at a high yield of 4.255%, down from 4.362% in July, and the lowest since December. So far so good, however, the yield also tailed the 4.2440% When Issued by 1.1bps, the first tail since February, and follows 6 stop throughs.”

USD futures made a morning low at 97.75, possibly fulfilling its Master Cycle low.  Should that be so, a reversal may be imminent.  Once the correction is complete, the USD may resume its uptrend with strength by mid-week.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:45 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 6332.90 this morning, but eased lower for the open.  The fear of missing out on the next big surge is trapping more investors as serious money may be leaving.  The anticipation of future rate cuts may be foolhardy in the face of systematic de-risking by commercials and hedge funds.  A further decline beneath Intermediate support at 6246.43 may give pause to the dip buyers, while a decline beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 6146.75 may open the floodgates with more selling.  The Cycles Model calls for further deterioration until the weekend, when trending downside strength may appear.  Should that occur, it may introduce a series of waterfall declines over the following week.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6315.00.  Long gamma resides above 6330.00 while short gamma becomes strong beneath  6300.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US futures rebound from yesterday’s modest drop as the market shakes off stagflationary concerns raised by NFP/ISM, although spoos trade well off their early session gains. As of 8:00am ET, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures were  0.2% higher. In premarket trading, McDonald’s and Shopify jumped after earnings beats; Mag7 names are mostly higher while Semis are dragged with downbeat AMD/SMCI earnings (see below). DIS/UBER highlight pre-mkt earnings releases; the former is lower on disappointing TV revenues, while the latter is flat despite solid results. Energy, Industrials, Healthcare and Utilities are stronger, too. Yields are bear steepening and the USD is flat for the second day. The Swiss President arrived in DC yesterday to meet with Trump, even as the US president preps new sanctions against Russia’s shadow tanker fleet unless Putin agrees to a cease-fire by Friday; WTI did not react to this news. Witkoff to meet with Russian officials today. Macro data releases are light with only mortgage apps but keep an eye on 10Y bond auction today at 1pm. EPS still a top priority for investors with another slew today.”

VIX futures have declined to 17.15 this morning in a nod to the put buyers.  Today is options expiration may release the hold that short gamma may have on the VIX.  0DTE speculators are piling on to the latest move, increasing the volatility until it breaks.  A bounce above the 50-day Moving Average at 17.61 may reinforce the buy signal.  Today’s pullback offers the next best hedging opportunity.

The August 13 options chain shows short gamma occupying the space between 15.00 and 17.00.  Long gamma takes over at 18.00, but there is little conviction on the long side.

TNX is hovering above its (possible) Master Cycle low at 41.98.  While TNX has fulfilled its time requirement for the Master Cycle, price may be questionable.  The fractal may need a final probe to the Cycle Bottom at 41.08 to be complete.  Should it be so, the fractal may be complete by the weekend.

ZeroHedge comments, “One week after the Treasury’s refunding announcement unveiled no major changes to the coupon auction schedule for the next few months, instead punting everything to Bills and leading to the following headline this morning:

• *US TREASURY TO AUCTION $100 BILLION IN FOUR-WEEK BILLS

… moments ago we got the first actual refunding auction of the week when the Treasury sold $58BN in 3Y paper in a very mediocre auction.”

USD futures declined to 98.16 this morning as it probes toward Intermediate support at 98.00.  It is likely that the USD may reach its target, completing the current Master Cycle, by the weekend.

The Ag Index has reached its lowest point since April 2024.  With it, the Master Cycle may be complete.  The Cycles Model calls for a short but sharp rally out of the low.  We may anticipate a rally to the 50-day Moving Average at 366.58 by month end.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Farmland is one of the oldest asset classes, rivaling precious metals in its ability to preserve generational wealth.

Unlike stocks or fiat currencies, farmland and cropland are tangible, finite, and highly productive. As the global population continues to grow and demand for healthier food intensifies, arable land per capita is shrinking due to urban sprawl and environmental degradation. This makes farmland not just a low-volatility store of value, but also a necessary hedge against rising global instability and inflationary pressures.”

ZeroHedge further reveals, “Ground beef prices are at record highs, while the U.S. cattle and calf herd has fallen to its lowest level in 50 years. Understanding these dynamics, we’ve been carefully watching for a cyclical low in the 12-year herd cycle, a bottom that now appears to have been reached.

New comments from Tyson Foods CEO Donnie King during Monday’s earnings call point to a long-awaited herd rebuilding cycle set to begin “in earnest” next year, though any meaningful supply recovery likely won’t materialize until 2028.”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

10:44 am

BKX challenged its Intermediate resistance at 141.07 yesterday, then slipped beneath it this morning, reiterating its sell signal.  There may be a week left in the current Master Cycle, allowing BKX to test the 50-day Moving Average at 136.65.

8:25 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures rose to 6350.09, slightly above the 61,8% Fibonacci retracement value at 6344.37.  It is likely that the SPX daily session may open above yesterday’s close.  However, the fractal pattern suggests a turn down shortly after the open.  A decline beneath Friday’s low at 6212.69 may bring about a potential waterfall decline to 6000.00.  Recognition of a break in the trend occurs at the 50-day Moving Average currently at 6129.88.  Until then, buying the dip may be encouraged.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6320.00.  Long gamma gets a big boost at 6350.00, while short gamma goes large beneath 6300.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Risk is mostly higher again this morning, last Friday’s selloff long forgotten, with equity futures and macro credit opening stronger while the yield curve is bear flattening as rates sell off across the curve, and the USD is higher. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.3%, led by small caps, pointing to further squeeze potential from shorts put on as recently as Friday; Nasdaq futures gained 0.4% as Palantir’s blowout earnings beat and commentary added more fuel to the AI trade. Pre-market, semis are standing out with Mag7 names higher; Industrials are leading Cyclicals over Defensives. Staples are in the red as the market continues to buy most dips/anything AI related along with squeezing shorts (GS Most Short Rolling +3.9% yday). Trade tensions ratchet higher as geopolitics enter the debate. According to Goldman, along with rising rate-cut bets, there are enough positive drivers to outweigh lingering concerns about tariffs, with India becoming the latest target in Trump’s trade war. Overnight, Fed non-voter Daly said that she would “lean to thinking that every meeting going forward is a live meeting” given the softness in the labor market and no signs of persistent tariff-driven inflation. On the trade front, Swiss President Keller-Sutter and other Swiss officials, in addition to Japan’s trade chief, will travel to the US for separate trade talks. Looking ahead today, the President will speak on CNBC “Squawk Box” at 8am ET. Data wise, we have trade balance, and ISM services. We got better S&P Global Services PMIs out of China (52.6 vs cons 50.4) and Japan (53.6 vs cons 53.5) while Europe was more mixed as UK, Germany, Spain beat but France and Italy missed. There are no scheduled Fed speakers.”

VIX futures are testing Intermediate support at 17.13 this morning.  A rise above the 50-day Moving Average at 17.67 reinforces the buy signal.  VIX is forming a fractal that may take it to the Cycle Top at 31.43 in short order.  Should it do so by the end of the week, the Cycles Model suggests a possible explosion of volatility in the following week.

Tomorrow’s options chain shows massive short gamma between 15.00 and 17.00.  Long gamma begins at 18.00 and extends to 30.00, without a lot of conviction.

TNX may be emerging from its master Cycle low on Monday, on day 262.  The alternate view may be a quick dip lower before reversing.  Time is running out on the old Master Cycle, but the Cycle Bottom at 41.11 may still hold some attraction.    Once the rates begin to rise in earnest, we may see the Head & Shoulders formation influence rates over the next three months.  The rise in the 10-year Treasury rate may be an influence in the housing market.  See below.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Lance Lambert, co-founder and editor of ResiClub, posted on X, highlighting an ongoing and record-breaking trend in the housing market: sellers now outnumber buyers by the widest margin since Redfin data began well over a decade ago. The growing number of sellers is especially evident in the U.S. Southwest and U.S. Southeast, particularly in Texas and Florida, where the balance of power has shifted in favor of buyers. ”

USD futures hit a low of 98.38 in the overnight session, testing the 50-day Moving Average at 98.33.  It may go lower, as the Intermediate support lies at 98.02.  USD may be in a correction mode until the end of the week.  Once completed, the uptrend may resume in strength.

The Japanese Yen emerged from its Master Cycle low with strength on Friday, giving pause to those who are involved in the carry trade.  The 50-day Moving Average lies at 68.62.  The Cycles Model suggests that another surge may be imminent which may set off alarms in the carry trade, as currency fluctuations may more than offset the low interest rates charged by the Bank of Japan.

Bitcoin has found support at the 50-day Moving Average at 112221.00 and may be capable of making a new all-time high, according to the Cycles Model.  There is a possible open window lasting another week to do so.

Gold futures are threatening a potential breakout above its previous high, having reached a high at 3437.40 this morning.  The Cycles Model suggests another week of potential rally to the Cycle Top resistance at 3602.79.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:33 am

Good Morning!

SPX peaked on Thursday and made an immediate sell signal by crossing beneath the Ending Diagonal trendline.  Friday’s aftermath was to be expected.  This morning’s bounce in the SPX futures has open gap resistance at 6296.79 and may not cross above it for any period of time.  The next move may be a further decline to test the 50-day Moving Average at 6122.84, which may hold, at least temporarily.  Should it break through the 50-day , the SPX may then decline to round number support near 6000.00.  The Cycles Model has given a trending strength indicator that may affect the decline over the next day or two.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain near 6260.00.  Long gamma strengthend near 6290.00 while short gamma rules beneath 6200.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are higher as markets rebound from last week’s sell-off amid increased expectations the Fed will ride to the rescue with rate cuts following Friday’s dismal US jobs data. As of 7:45am ET, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures climbed 0.7% after the index had its biggest decline since May on Friday. Pre-market, Mag7 and Semis are outperforming with Cyclicals over Defensives. Bond yields are 2-3bp higher as the USD falls again. Commodities are weaker with Energy underperforming as OPEC+ approves another supply hike. This is a catalyst-light week with tomorrow’s ISM the most important and heightened focus on weekly claims with the Fed spotlighting the unemployment rate.”

VIX futures declined to a low of 18.87 after having crossed above  the 50-day, the declining Wedge trendline and the mid-Cycle resistance at 19.44, creating a strong buy signal as volatility reawakens.

The Augus6 options chain shows Max Pain at 18.00.  Short gamma still resides between 15.00-17.00.  Long gamma may begin at 20.00, but tapers off above 30.00, suggesting little conviction in hedging, yet.

ZeroHedge notes, “After a long period of “complacency” in the market, volatility finally returned on Friday, dropping more than 1%. As we noted Friday morning, before the market opened:

“While stretches have previously been longer, a consideration of such an event is that low volatility tends to beget high volatility. These “buying stampedes” typically last on average about 15 trading days, so at 25 and counting, we are certainly pushing a more extended duration.””

TNX is consolidating near 42.00.  This suggests a final probe to the Cycle Bottom at 41.12, completing the Master Cycle in the next few days.  A possible bottom on August 11.

After a nearly 5-month consolidation, gold futures have broken out above its most recent high, reaching 3439.32 this morning.  The Cycles Model anticipates a week or longer of rally, possibly aiming for the Cycle Top near 3600.00, or much higher, depending on world events.  It is on a buy signal.

Crude oil futures challenged the 50-day Moving Average at 66.21, then bounced above it, hovering beneath the mid-Cycle resistance at 67.96.  Rising above that level reaffirms the buy signal in place since May.  The Cycles Model indicates a continued rise in the price of oil through the first week of September, likely validating the Head & Shoulders formation.

ZeroHedge observes, “President Trump switched his attention from the domestic jobs figures to the price of oil this morning with a Truth Social post that lambasts India for their dealings with Russia:

“India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits.”

Then Trump made the threats:

They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine.

Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA.

Thank you for your attention to this matter!!! President DJT

And oil prices spiked on the news…”

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

1:45 pm

SPX has crossed beneath the diagonal trendline near 6380.00 and yesterday’s low at 6375.79, qualifying for a sell signal, although a shallow one.  The break of an Ending Diagonal brings the possibility of a complete retracement to the April 7 low.  The VIX has also reversed out of its Master Cycle low today, giving further confirmation.  Have a good week!

8:00 am

Note:  I will be leaving for a week-long sabbatical tomorrow.

Good Morning!

SPX futures are trading in a narrow range between 6391.00 and 6410.00 this morning.  Having met round number resistance at 6400.00, investors may attempt to leapfrog over that level.  However, fractal resistance is at 6416.00, while the Cycle Top awaits at 6425.00.  These are behavioral constructs that suggest new buyers may not be waiting above those levels.   In addition, high hopes of the FOMC announcing rate cuts at tomorrow’s press conference may be dashed.  The Cycles Model suggests an imminent reversal, perhaps at the FOMC announcement with a possible three-week decline with strength.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6385.00.  Long gamma resides above 6400.00 while short gamma awaits beneath 6350.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are up again, and set for a 7th consecutive record high into a heavy earnings day and ahead of tomorrow’s Fed decision as attention turns from trade deals to company results and economic data to justify nosebleed valuations. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are 0.2% higher after the index hit its latest record high on Monday; tech is outperforming again and Nasdaq 100 contracts up 0.5%. In pre-market trading, Mag7, Semis, and Cyclicals are outperforming. Bond yields are lower (10Y yield at 4.3919%, down 2bps) as the USD rally is poised to continue after the dollar climbed to its strongest level in more than five weeks on speculation a slew of readings on the economy will show the tariff impact is contained. Commodities are mixed with energy leading on US / RU geopolitics. The macro data focus today includes JOLTS, Housing Prices, regional Fed activity indicators, trade data, inventories, and consumer confidence.”

VIX futures have made a new low at 14.70 this morning, clearly showing no concern for risk in equities.  Both time and price have been stretched in this Master Cycle.  However, the declining wedge warns of a snap-back to the April high.

Tomorrow’s options chain shows heavy negative gamma at 15.00 – 16.00.  Long gamma may rebound above 22.00.

TNX is testing the 200-day Moving Average at 43.75 this morning.  The Cycles Model shows there may be serious pressure on the 10-year today.  Support may lie at the July 22 low at 43.28.  While the Chinese continue to sell treasuries, the Treasury announced a surge in borrowing in the third quarter.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Earlier this afternoon, we wrote in our Treasury refunding preview that the Treasury’s latest borrowing estimate published today (which is also part 1 of the Refunding statement), would show a surge in current quarter funding needs by over $400 billion, from $554 billion to $960 billion.

It was short by almost $50 billion. We found that out moments ago when the Treasury published its estimate for marketable borrowing needs for the July-September 2025 and October-December 2025 quarters. ”

The USD broke above its declining wedge at 98.50, showing a change in trend and a confirmed buy signal above the 50-day Moving Average at 98.38.  The Cycles Model shows a very strong surge higher over the next week or more.  Dollar shorts are now in the crosshairs, as a probable target may be the mid-Cycle resistance at 103.31.

The Japanese yen may be retesting the mid-Cycle support at 66.97 today.  Should that be so, the Master Cycle may be stretched a bit more.  However, it may subsequently explode significantly higher as the uptrend reasserts itself.  Those in the Yen carry trade who have become comfortable with the past four months of sideways motion find the pain of a rising borrowed currency may become acute.

ZeroHedge observes, “As Trump publicly dressed down Powell during a Fed facility tour, markets watched in disbelief. But behind the cringe-worthy optics lies a deeper crisis: global yields are surging, and Japan—yes, Japan—is the canary in the coal mine. “Watch JGB yields every morning,” warns Peter Boockvar, as the BOJ loses control amid rising inflation and political fallout.”

Bitcoin is in the final throes of its all-time high above 123200.00. With it may come the end of the current Master Cycle, due to make its reversal this week.  Keep an eye  on the action, as the reversal may be swift and deep.  The Cycles Model suggests the month of August may be a complete washout.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us8:00from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

I have been able to recover my charts, but for an unknown duration.  Tuesday may be my last day of commentary, as I will be taking a week-long sabbatical on Wednesday.

SPX futures rose to 6423.30 over the weekend, but has declined thereafter, testing round number support at 6400.00 as I write.  Over the weekend it has tested the Cycle Top resistance at 6417.40.  I had previously mentioned a fractal target at 6416.000 last week.  Thus the SPX has met fractal equality and the Cycle Top simultaneously.  A decline beneath 6400.00 offers an aggressive sell signal while a further decline beneath the diagonal trendline at 6350.00 breaks the uptrend.  The 50-day Moving Average at 6080.00is where recognition is made that, should the SPX decline beneath it, a widely recognized sell signal may be found.

Today’s action may produce a new all-time high, followed by a reversal.  Otherwise, Friday’s daytime high at 6395.82 may serve as the official all-time high, should the SPX break beneath 6400.00 this morning.  The Cycles Model shows a possible drift lower, but may remain steady until the week of August 10.  This may encourage speculators to go all-in for a short period of time.  The question is, “Who will buy at the all-time-highs?”

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6385.00.  Long gamma may prevail above 6390.00 while short gamma resides beneath 6350.00, where the trendline may be crossed.

ZeroHedge reports, “Another day, another all time high.

US equity futures and global markets are at a fresh all time high (but the gains are fading) on a trade-induced, global risk-on rally, sparked by Sunday’s US/EU deal for 15% tariffs on European exports to the US, while we also learned that US/China will extend the trade truce by 90-days as they resume negotiations today. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are  up 0.2%, well off session highs, while Nasdaq futures gain 0.3%. Pre-market, all Mag7 names are higher with semis outperforming. Cyclicals are poised to outperform, led by Fins/Industrials. Bond yields are up 1bp, reversing an earlier drop, as the USD appreciates on the back of a slide in the euro and yen. Commodities are mixed with crude higher, natgas lower, precious metals flat, base metals down, and Ags mixed. Today’s macro data is light with on Dallas Fed Mfg Activity but it’s a crazy busy week with the Fed decision on deck, 38% of all companies reporting, the jobs report on Friday and much more (full preview coming).”

VIX futures may be coming off their Master Cycle low on Friday at 14.92.  Futures have consolidated between 15.11 and 15.29, showing possible strength in the new trend.  VIX may consolidate beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 17.84 for the next two weeks.  The declining wedge trendline lies at 19.00, above which a new uptrend is begun.

TNX consolidated between 43.67 and 44.31 over the weekend.  A show of strength may be imminent which may allow TNX to break above its consolidation.  Should that occur, the neckline at 49.00 may be tested.  The Cycles Model suggests a continued rally in rates through the end of September.

USD futures are testing the 50-day Moving Average at 98.41 this morning.  The Cycles Model suggests this may only be a test and not a breakout.  There are approximately 2 weeks left in the current Master Cycle, which may test the lower trendline near 96.00.  Should it break above the 50-day a new uptrend may be found.  However, the current trend is still down.

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:15 am

Dear Readers,

In the past few days I have been informed that StockCharts will no longer support their old methodologies.  Instead, they have encouraged me to convert to the new workbench.  Unfortunately, I have lost all my work on the old system and cannot retrieve charts from the new system for the newsletter.  I am afraid I am at a loss until an alternative may be found, since I cannot talk directly with their experts.  I am sorely disappointed in their action.

Sincerely,

Tony

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures reached a new all-time high at 6371.00 this morning.  While on its final probe, it may reach the Cycle Top resistance currently at 6401.47.  There is potential fractal resistance at 6416.00.  Today is day 279 in a very stretched Master Cycle, 21 days beyond the standard length of a Master Cycle.   The Cycles Model remains quiescent, allowing the stretch to continue…until it becomes completely exhausted.  Retail investors are all-in, with increasing leverage, owning 70% of the options in calls, with a heavy emphasis on 0DTE.   There seems to be no urge to take profits.  Suddenly they will find there are no buyers.  Hedge funds are increasingly short.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6340.00.  Long gamma may prevail above 6360.00 while short gamma lies beneath 6325.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “Global stocks extended their rally to fresh record highs on the prospect of more trade deals with the US, easing fears of a drawn-out tariff war while US equity futures are also higher led by Tech with small caps lower after yesterday’s outperformance, as sentiment was boosted by Alphabet signaling strong demand for its AI products, while Tesla posted the biggest revenue decline in at least a decade. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are 0.1% higher and Nasdaq futs gain 0.3% with the AI theme driving Tech following GOOG earnings with $10 billlion capex boost helping lift other AI infrastructure stocks in premarket trading, including NVDA and AVGO. Tesla slumped 6% after Elon Musk warned of difficult times ahead after losing electric vehicle incentives in the US. Cyclicals are stronger pre-market led by Industrials. Bond yields are 1bp from 2s to 30s with USD seeing its first bid in 5 sessions. Commodities are also higher led by Ags/Energy with weakness in both Base and Precious metals. Today’s macro data focus is on Flash PMIs, Jobless Claims, Home Sales, and regional Fed activity indicators.”

VIX futures have declined to a morning low of 15.18, extending the Master Cycle low to day 266.  The Cycles Model is suddenly becoming active, starting tomorrow, with trending strength powering up over the weekend.  A breakout above the wedge formation at 19.00 may be anticipated by the end of the weekend.  Once launched, the new trend may continue to the end of August.

Todays’ options chain shows Max Pain at 17.00.  Short gamma has a weak showing at 16.00 while long gamma is bursting at the seams at 22.00.  Hedging drops off above 26.00.

TNX rallied above its 50-day Moving Average at 44.11 this morning , creating a buy signal.  While a few analysts recognize the importance of the 50-day, most investors may not react until TNX breaks out above its recent highs at 44.93.    The Cycles Model may reinforce the buy signal over the weekend with a singular burst of energy, followed up with another a showing of trending strength by mid-week.  The prevailing belief that the Fed may allow 100 bp cuts by the end of the year  may be chalked up as wishful thinking.