The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
11:32 am
BKX is pulling away from its Master Cycle high made yesterday. A sell signal may be obtained with a decline beneath its trendline at 165.00. Liquidity is tightening as tax payments are being made to meet the IRS deadline. While the illiquidity of private credit has been shuffled into the background, banks have been quietly reviewing their exposure to private credit, while downplaying the risks.
7:45 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to a new high at 7041.20 this morning. A Fibonacci target may be near 7060.00, while the Cycle Top resistance lies at 7093.95. Either level may suffice as breadth has collapsed with a diminishing number of stocks making 52-week highs. Although there is a significant amount of cash in the sidelines, investors are not chasing stocks. The Cycles Model suggests that the SPX may have entered the reversal zone, leading to direct action in the next week. Tax payments are due this week, choking off liquidity. Volatility is due to spike this weekend, which may be an ingredient for a spectacular reversal.
Today’s options chain shows max Pain at 7015.00. Long gamma resides above 7025.00 while short gamma is growing beneath 7000.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “Stock futures are edging higher on continued optimism about an extended truce in the Middle East, while Taiwan Semi’s solid results have sparked another leg higher in AI trade.”
The premarket VIX is consolidating above yesterday’s potential Master Cycle low. After being compressed in the past week, VIX may be poised to explode higher.
The April 22 VIX options chain shows a highly disputed Max Pain at 18.00. Short gamma resides beneath 16.00 while long gamma rises above 20.00 with call walls at 30.00 and 40.00.
The US 10-yeaar bond yield is consolidating above the Intermediate support at 42.56. The Cycles Model offers a possible burst of volatility today that may drive TNX lower. A possible target may be the 52-day Moving Average at 42.12. The uptrend is due to resume next week.
The USD may be emerging from its master cycle low this morning after making a near-61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its rally from the January low. The Cycles Model suggests the USD may start running hot next week with a possible breakout by the end of the month.
Bitcoin is consolidating beneath its April 14 high. The high may have come early in the old Master Cycle, but the loss of liquidity due to tax payments is ubiquitous. The Cycles Model gives no particular signal at the moment. A sell signal may lie beneath the Intermediate support at 70392.00.
Crude oil is consolidating this morning before making a final probe to test the 52-day Moving Average currently at 82.69. The Cycles Model suggests a bottom may be made by the weekend before a surge of strength propels it higher.
ZeroHedge observes, “Australia’s failed “green” domestic energy policies had already sparked a fuel-supply shock shortly after the U.S.-Iran conflict disrupted tankers at the Hormuz chokepoint. Now, a fire has broken out at the larger of Australia’s two remaining oil refineries, adding even more fuel supply woes.”
Gold is consolidating beneath its 52-day Moving Average at 4865.58 this morning. After clawing back some of its losses, gold may be about to sell of again. Note the possible target.