The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
10:15 am
The Agricultural Index is winding up for a massive breakout this weekend as inputs (fuel, fertilizer) costs soar. Should the Age Index rise above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation, the H&S target may be in reach in the next 4 weeks.
ZeroHedge remarks, “The conversation grows louder by the day as disruption at the Hormuz chokepoint hits the global nitrogen fertilizer market and, in turn, is set to impact upcoming corn and grain harvests in some key growing regions.”
7:45 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 6633.90 this morning, partially completing its retracement of last weeks decline. While yesterday stocks experienced a record degrossing with shorts outnumbering longs 2.5 to 1, the decline may not be over. Sentiment is the lowest since last April, but these measures have a recency bias, assuming that “normalcy” may quickly return. The experienced investors are still on the sidelines. The Cycles model infers a continued decline for possibly another week before a sizable bounce.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6590.00. Long gamma may begin above 6600.00 while short gamma dominates beneath 6575.00. The surge in this morning’s futures may have been an attempt by the dealers to achieve Max Pain (smallest options payout).
ZeroHedge remarks, “US futures are sharply higher and oil tumbles as the US reportedly offered a15-point plan to help bring the conflict to a close triggering a global rally…”
The premarket VIX eased down to 24.85 as dealers attempt to move the SPX to Max Pain. However, it remains above the Cycle Top support at 24.13, giving a green light to moving much higher. Trending strength is coming back, according to the Cycles Model. a breakout above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation may be imminent.
The April 1 options chain shows Max Pain at 21.00. Short gamma shows a put wall at 20.00. Long gamma begins at 22.00 and has a growing presence to 60.00.
The US 10-year Bond Yield pulled back to 43.07, just above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation before bouncing, while the cash market shows a low at 43.30. The test of the neckline may continue for several days, with a possible lower bottom of this correction. The Cycles Model shows this rally to be strikingly resilient and long-lasting, possibly to early June, with the target of the head & Shoulders formation in mind.
2:45 pm
ZeroHedge reports, “Another day, another very ugly auction.
After yesterday’s appallingly bad 2Y auction, moments ago the Treasury sold $70BN in 5Y paper in what was another terrible auction.
Just after 1pm, the auction stopped at a high yield of 3.966%, up from 3.608% in February and the highest since May 2025. It also tailed the When Issued 3.966% by 1.4bps, the biggest tail since Oct 2024.”
The USD is consolidating above its correction low at 98.88. The Cycles Model shows growing strength with a possible breakout above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation by early next week.
Bitcoin may have put on the final touches to its retracement today at 72021.00. The 50% retracement level is at 71700.00, so the retracement is legitimate. Values may be different in the futures. The decline may resume, with acceleration by Friday.
Gold continued to rise to 4633.17 in a vicious squeeze before easing back down, erasing Monday’s bloodbath. However, the decline may resume shortly. The panic episode and bounce-back has been spent. However, gold may decline to a new low in the next few weeks.
Crude oil consolidates within yesterday’s range, bt may resume its decline shortly. Current estimates put the possible low near Intermediate support at 76.74. However, there may be a strong attraction to the 52-day Moving Average at 71.36 for the cycle low over the next three weeks.
Silver may have completed its bounce at 74.80 this morning. From here, the decline may resume, with strong attraction to 45.00-50.00. However, under certain circumstances it may go lower.