The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
7:30 am
Good morning!
SPX futures rose to 6285.10, then dropped to 6243.90 over the holiday weekend session. The anticipated volatility has kicked in, leading to a possible reversal over the weekend. This may be confirmed on Wednesday, expected to be a highly volatile day. Should that be so, the Cycles Model projects a decline lasting to late August. Stock market liquidity is becoming less friendly while recession risks are growing.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are weaker with investors on edge about the potential for more tariffs from the Trump administration as we head into the July 9 deadline which appears to have been rolled to Aug 1. As of 8:15am ET, S&P 500 contracts declined 0.2% although well off session lows after Treasury Secretary Bessent indicated that some countries may get a three-week extension to trade negotiations. Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.4% with small caps underperforming but tech is being dragged by TSLA sliding 6% after Elon Musk announced he will form a new political party. Apple (-1.0%) after phone shipments from China in May were down 9.7% Y/Y for the tranche that includes iPhones. Semis/Cyclicals under pressure. Trump said either a deal will be done, or a country will get a letter on Monday with 12 letters set to be sent today. Additionally, the president said late on Sunday that Anyone aligning with BRICS “Anti-American” stance is subject to an additional 10% tariff. Oil was flat, rebounding from session lows after OPEC+ did another supply hike, this time for 548k bpd. Yield curve is twisting steeper, USD stronger, and cmdtys declining (Ags, metals). This is a light macro data week into next week’s CPI and kick off to earnings season.”
VIX futures rose off their Thursday low, making a minor breakout above Thursday’s high at 17.48. Confirmation and a buy signal may come above resistance at 19.95.
1:00 pm
TNX continues to rally from its July 1 low, leaving a Master Cycle bottom. It is on a buy signal and may be confirming it today asi it rises above the 50-day Moving Average.