The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
7:30 am
Please Note: I am taking a Summer vacation with my family next week and do not expect to be reporting on this blog for the entire week.
Good Morning!
SPX futures declined to 5919.40 during the Juneteenth holiday, then recovered to 5980.30 this morning. The calm before the storm is extending into next week with possible gradual erosion of values until mid-week. SPX is on a sell signal after declining beneath the double trendlines. further confirmation lies beneath Intermediate support at 5880.35. Additional support lies at the mid-Cycle and 200-day Moving Average 5831.63. The Cycles Model calls for the decline to continue to mid-July. Unfortunately, the market appears calm enough that investors are still buying the dips. However, wisdom dictates that selling the bounces would be more appropriate. Trending strength comes roaring back the first week of July.
Tooday’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5990.00. Long gamma may begin above 6000.00 with strong conviction above 6050.00. Short gamma starts beneath 5970.00.
VIX futures are still lingering above mid-Cycle support at 19.83. The 50-day Moving Average is located at 23.61, while the recognized historical average for the VIX remains near 25.00. Investors remain complacent, while pressure for a breakout is building.
Bitcoin appears caught between the 50-day Moving Average at 104352.00 and Intermediate resistance at 106576.00. The consolidation may be waiting for a catalyst to make its breakoutor breakdown. The Cycles Model points at the 4th of July for veritable fireworks moving Bitcoin to its next level.
USD futures remain in a pause that precedes the next move higher. The Cycles Model suggests the USD may grow in strength as early as this weekend as Europeans begin to move their money to the USD as a haven against a possible war. A move above the 50-day Moving Average may put the squeeze on a very large crowd of USD shorts, providing fuel for a massive move higher. The Cycles Model shows the uptrend may last to the end of July, so there is time for a potential move to the Cycle Top at 110.98.