The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
7:45 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures declined to 5942.40 this morning, breaking beneath Monday’s low and potentially increasing the odds of an accelerating decline. The next visible support is the Intermediate level at 5880.35. However, the short-term decline may not end until SPX reached the 200-day Moving Average at 5770.21. The 50-day Moving Average is beneath it at 5692.33. The Cycles Model suggests no panic until the SPX crosses the 200-day Moving Average sometime next week. The SPX is on a sell signal. The FOMC reports “No Change” in the Fed Funds outlook, but remain flexible in the future.
All domestic markets are closed for Juneteenth, June 19, 2025.
Bitcoin continues to ride the 50-day support at 104524.40 this morning. Support is due to break imminently. The next level of support is the mid-Cycle level at 95552.28. The Cycles Model suggests a possible panic situation at the start of the 4th of July holiday. The decline may continue to the end of July.
The Euro made its final peak on June 12 at 116.32 in a very late Master Cycle high. The Cycles Model suggests a very steep decline that may last until early September as investors cash out and take their savings elsewhere. Some of the risks to European investors include the Ukraine and Middle East wars, loss of energy supplies and governments going broke with the threat of confiscation of assets under “emergency powers.” The love fest with Europe may be over.
The Japanese Yen declined to a morning low at 68.60, extending its Master Cycle low by two weeks beyond the median length of a Master Cycle. Stay alert ot the fact that the Cycles Model suggests a very strong surge out of this low imminently. The concept of the Yen as a safe haven may take root over the weekend as trending strength returns over the next week. The rally may be short-lived (three weeks) but powerful as the Yen may be boosted above the Lip of the Cup with Handle formation.
USD futures are hovering beneath the combined overhead resistance at 99.52. The Master Cycle low was made on June 12 and the Cycles Model implies a very strong push to and above resistance as trending strength appears over the weekend and through next week. The rally may be fueled by massive short covering as the dollar bears are a very large crowd.