The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
11:48 am
SPX has tested round number support at 6000.00 and bounced. Provided it does not bounce above its morning high at 6024.00, a decline beneath 6000.00 will also cross the trendline, causing a sell signal. The nearest support after that is Intermediate support at 5895.00, which may confirm the signal. Overhead resistance at 6020.00is still valid.
12:08 pm
SPX is going higher, but may have a limit near 6040.00. If correct, brace yourselves for a Key Reversal.
8:00 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 6035.20, then eased back to yesterday’s close. Should the cash market “catch up” to the futures, we may see the SPX approaching its next target at 6050.00. However, there is an even chance that the rally may fail to materialize, as the equities markets face exhaustion. The Cycles Model indicates a terminus may be at hand, expressed by a lack of bidders. Today is day 257 of an average 258-day Cycle. Anything may happen here.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6000.00. Long gamma may begin above 6050.00, while short gamma may start beneath 5950.00. Options are at an impasse.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are little changed, paring earlier gains along with European stocks, as Commerce Secretary Lutnick says US-China trade talks are “going well” and that they’re expected to go on all day. The bar for an improvement risk appetite appears high after Chinese stocks suddenly fell toward the end of trading day earlier, sparking a broader souring of sentiment. As of 8:00am S&P futures were up 0.1% into today’s trade talks and tomorrow’s CPI print; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.1%, with Mag7 names seeing muted returns ex-TSLA which is +3%. Semis/Cyclicals are seeing a bid. The UK’s FTSE 100, however, was poised to close at an all-time high for the first time since March. US/China talks continue for a second day with Bessent empowered to alter US export controls; US/Iran talks are set for Thursday.
US Treasuries extended gains ahead of a $58 billion auction of three-year bonds; the USD is higher into tomorrow’s CPI; commodities are higher led by Ags/Energy. Today’s macro data print is the Small Business Optimism survey, which rose from 95.8 to 98.8, beating expectations of a 96.0 print.”
VIX futures rose to a morning high at 17.79 while Friday’s low remains intact. The Cycles Model anticipates a potential rally to mid-July in the new Master Cycle. Meanwhile, the median average S&P 500 short interest is at 6-year highs. Most analysts consider this as an indicator that equities have room to run higher. However, this may be due more to recency bias than a look at the big picture.
Tomorrow’s options chain shows Max Pain at 19.00. Short gamma runs heavy between 16.00 and 18.00. Long gamma begins at 20.00, but remains spotty above that level.
TNX is correcting and may decline to Intermediate support at 44.01, or extend to the 50-day Moving Average at 43.59. However, the window for the correction may be very short, as Trending Strength returns by the end of the week. TNX is on a buy signal and offers value to intermediate traders as TNX may be due to break out much higher. Keep an eye on the Treasury auction schedule.
Bitcoin stalled short of its potential rally target of 111000.00. It may be due to resume its decline imminently.
Japanese Yen futures made a Master Cycle low at 68.87 last night, short of the 50-day Moving Average at 68.35. The low is approximately a week overdue, so the odds are that a new high may be imminent. The Yen has appreciated in valu by more than 9.6% since the beginning of the year. The squeeze is being felt by those utilizing the Yen carry trade to finance their operations. Several very large hedge funds may be on the verge of blowing up due to their razor-thin margins.
USD futures are hovering above their double bottom low made on June 5. The Cycles calendar allows a possibly deeper low within the week. However, should it maintain its elevation, Trending strength may return later this week. The alternative is a slightly lower decline to the Cycle Bottom may be in order.
Silver futures have broken out above the Lip of the Cup with Handle formation. What is interesting is that silver is on a different Cycle than gold. The Cycles Model suggests silver may go higher and longer as the gold Cycle shows weakness.
Crude oil futures rose to 65.77 this morning as it continues on its buy signal above the 50-day Moving Average. The Cycles Model suggests today may be a day of strength as the current Master Cycle continues through mid-July. The possible target may be the Cycle Top at 77.72.