The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
Good Morning!
SPX futures consolidated inside yesterday’s trading range as it may emerge out of a minor Trading Cycle. It is helpful to be aware of this lesser Cycle, although it often does not sync with the Master Cycle. It may provide queues for buying the dip in a longer trend. The Master Cycle has 2-3 weeks left, with the balance of this week as a base-building oportunity for the next probe higher. Nvidia reports earnings after the close today, which may provide some volatility.
ZeroHedge reports, “Stock futures are are flat and Treasuries slipped while oil stumbled heading into today’s PCE report and NVDA earnings.”
The premarket VIX also consolidated this morning, with indications of going higher. The Cycles Model suggests a strong surge of strength over the next few days. The outcome may be a test of theEnding Diagonal trendline near 19.50. Should it follow this ending fractal, the boost higher may be followed by a decline to new lows over the next few weeks.
USD is also consolidating beneath the dual resistance at 99.13. The Master Cycle has flipped, but has not gained enough strength to emerge above its 200-day Moving Average. The Cycles Model suggests that Trending strength may return over the weekend. The new Master Cycle may probe higher to mid-October.
The US 10-year Bond Yield continues to decline toward its 52-day Moving Average and lower trendline at 45.85. While yields temporarily decline, the honeymoon may already be over for Warsh. Hard questions may be asked at Jackson Hole. The fact is, since 1949, the Fed has not been in charge of the trend in rates. The Cycles Model suggests the “line in the sand” may be testd next week.
ZeroHedge observes, “After last week’s post “Bessent buyback” fireworks, which sent yields on a rollercoaster ride in the subsequent days, many were very curious to see how today’s sale of $69BN in 2 year paper, the week’s first coupon auction, would go and whether Bessent inadvertently had impaired primary market issuance. In the end, the auction went through without a glitch.”
Crude oil continues to decline to a triple support area near 79.06 this morning. Time and price may offer a reversal of this correction by Friday. The Cycles Model suggests the trend may resume higher to mid-October, with the Cycle Top at 110.71 as the intended target.
ZeroHedge observes, ” Brent crude futures dropped for a third session as Iran and Oman advanced plans for a temporary maritime corridor through the Strait of Hormuz.”
Gold has declined from yesterday’s peak. The first alert of a reversal may lie beneath the mid-Cycle support at 4544.00. Should it remain above that level, the indicators suggests another probe higher may be forthcoming. A possible target in that event may be 5000.00.
The Ag Index is consolidating beneath yesterday’s high. The Cycles Model allows another week or so to test the high or make a corrective low before before a new Cycle may emerge. The timing and fractal structure are complex and may need more time to sort things out.
ZeroHedge gives notice, “Warnings on Wall Street about a confluence of stressors building deep within global agricultural supply chains are growing louder by the week, raising the risk of a food crisis next year.”
Bitcoin has pulled back from the Cycle Too resistance, currently at 81680.00. It may be due for a pullback, perhaps to 75000.00, before proceeding higher. The current master Cycle extends to the end of September. A really above the Cycle Top may engage one of the Fibonacci levels illustrated in the chart. A target near 100000.00 is not out of the question.