The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
9:30 am
Good Morning!
SPX opened higher this morning, but may be struggling with the Cycle Top resistance at 7743.27. The jobs report turned out poorly for the month of July, giving an impetus to a possible correction down to the 52-day Moving Average at 7494.82. That measures out to a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, a normal retracement value, especially after the sharp, 3-day rally from the Cycle low. A lesser 50% retracement may go to 7552.85. Should it emerge above the Cycle Top resistance, a strong rally may follow.
ZeroHedge reported (earlier), “US futures grind higher in a European session devoid of newsflow ahead of nonfarm payrolls. As of 815am ET, S&P futures rose 0.2% while Nasdaq futures gained 0.4%, with some of yesterday’s beaten up tech names such as Sandisk and Western Digital getting some reprieve in the premarket.”
VIX dipped beneath its lower Triangle trendline at 16.40, then paused, suggesting the decline may have temporarily run its course. Should a bounce develop, it may run as high as the mid-Cycle resistance at 18.65. Note that the VIX may be caught within its downtrend chanel until mid-September.
The US 10-year Bond Yield ventured lower this morning, toward the next level of support at 45.66. The Cycles Model suggests the correction may last to the end of August, giving the correction time to test the lower trendline.
USD may be in the process of putting in its Master Cycle low today. The final numbers may be available at the close. The mid-Cycle support lies at 99.13, which may provicwe a floor for this Master cycle.
Bitcoin may be gaining some upside momentum today. The new Master Cycle may be a particularly lively one, lasting to the end of Spetember. While the Cycle Top resistance at 80962.00 may be tested soon, the ultimate top may be closer to 100 by October.
Crude oil may be sorting through the mid-Cycle resistnce at resistance at 77.50 this morning. The Cycles Model suggests another probe lower may finish the correction near 70.00. A reversal from there may take crude oil considerably higher. Earlier estimates that crude may extend to 130.00 may be conservative.
ZeroHedge observes, “Samantha Dart, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, began the week by telling Bloomberg TV that the global diesel-supply crunch is “what keeps her up at night.” She followed up Wednesday with a client note warning that European natural gas storage levels are also lagging the seasonal average ahead of the winter heating period.”
Gold may have made its Master Cycle high at 4371.83 on the CME today, completing an unexpected tail on its Triangle formation. Futures topped out at 4432.10. A squeeze turned into a momentum chase. Should this analysis be correct, gold may reverse to complete the next Master Cycle near the lower trendline of tis trading channel at 3500.00.
The ag index has pulled up from its low and is testing the Cycle Top resistance at 392.82. Should it go higherr, the Neckline of the head & Shoulders fromation awaits. The Cycles Model indicates a possible four more weeks of rally that may complement the H&S target.