The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
11:15 am
BKX has made a definitive decline beneath the Cycle Topat 189.54, putting it on an aggressive sell signal. There is a trendline and Intermediate support at 184.80, beneath which lies a confirmed sell signal.
12:20 pm
SPX has completed its downdraft, or nearly so today as the market awaits the 2:00 pm FOMC press release followed by the press conference at 2:30 pm. This morning I had mentioned the the SPX may break above the 52-day Moving Average at 7471 by the end of the day. The volatility following the Fed announcement may be the catalyst for a reversal.
The NDX also probed lower this morning, but may also partake in the reversal this afternoon.
9:00 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures pressed higher this morning, to 7465.20, before easing back. The 52-day Moving Average lies at 7470.05, barring the SPX from going higher. Yet the Cycles Model infers that the SPX may break above that by the end of the day. Yesterday’s positive close yesterday belied the turmoil underneath as hedge funds had their worst day on record!
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher, overlooking both tech-led declines in Asia which saw the Kospi crash as much as 13% and trigger a second consecutive 20 minute market-wide halt, and the 5% jump in oil prices which has pushed Brent over $88.”
NDX may have finally made its master Cycle low overnight as losses piled up for investors. Overnight futures made a low at 27494.20, but managed a bounce to 28000.00 before the open as the NDX may have exhausted its selling.
The premarket VIX rose to 18.94, above the mid-Cycle resistance at 18.73. Yet, the VIX is being contianed by the upper trendline of its descending trading channel at 20.00. The overriding formation is a 2.5 year Triangle that insists on owning a tail. The Cycles Model suggests a declining VIX into the month of September.
TNX attempted a bounce this morning, but found resistance at the Cycle Top at 46.54. The next lower suport is the combinde 52-day and Intermediate supports at 45.26. The pullback may last until the weekend. Trending strength may return in early August. A possible renewed rally may then take hold to early September. The Head & Shoulders formation may be activated abooove the neckline at 47.00.
The US Dollar index is consolidating beneath its Cycle Top at 101.57. A breakout above the Cycle Top may produce a sharp rally. However, the Cycles Model does not indicate strength for another week, allowing the USD to fall back to its 52-day Moving Average currently at 100.43.
Bitcoin has bounced from its 52-day Moving Average at 63311.00 this morning. The Cycles Model calls for a terminal Master Cycle in the next week and indications are that trending strength may reappear to send BTC toward the mis-Cycle resistance at 70101.00 by early next week.
Crude oil soared back above the 52-day Moving Average at 83.78, reinstating the buy signal after finding a floor at Intermediate support at 77.83. The Cycles Model infers the next resistance the rally may be the Cycle Top at 110.36. Should it exceed that level, crude may rise to 130.00, or higher.
ZeroHedge remarks, “Summary
- Oil soars on reports of Iran targeting US Jordan base; Iraqi militants attack KSA for 2nd day.
- Hormuz indirect talks continue amid reports of a possible resurrected MoU deal.
- Shipping remains stalled with virtually no tanker traffic through Hormuz.
- Iran insists Hormuz stays closed unless its terms are accepted.
- Houthis escalate attacks, prompting more ships to avoid the Red Sea.”
Gold is challenging round number support at 4000.00 as it fell to 3996.13 this morning. Today may show downside strength, breaking the month-long sideways consolidation. Should it do so, the next support may be the Cycle Bottom at 3768.39. Note that the new Master Cycle may be a long one, suggesting the lower trendline may be a more appropriate target.
The Agriculture index is consolidating around its Cycle Top at 390.75. The Cycles Model indicate today as a day of strength. Should it break above the neckline, the Ag index may proceed higher until early September, giving adequate time to meet or exceed the head & Shoulders formation target.
ZeroHedge observes, “Less than a week after we reported that an options whale placed a $20 million bet on corn futures, a new U.S. crop report revealed the sharpest weekly deterioration in conditions in three years.”