The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
10:48 am
SPX has declined beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 6898.00 and is retesting it at this time. This is a sell signal. Traders are wondering why NVDA is down. The market is down on bad news and good news.
8:00 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures consolidated between 6958.00 – 6930.00 in the overnight market, remaining above Intermediate support at 6914.00. The trendline is near 6950.00. The dealers may attempt to overcome the trendline and may do so temporarily today. Fractal analysis suggests the SPX may have the capacity to rise briefly before a reversal. To many, it may seem as if the SPX is making an ATH, but it is the result of a rogue Wave (B) that may already be complete. Wave (B)’s are counter-trend moves that are fast and have the appearance of longevity. but are not long term. The Cycles Model suggests that may be about 3 weeks of decline following the reversal.
Today’s options chain shows Max pain at 6925.00. Long Gamma may begin at 6950.00 while short gamma may start at 6900.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures managed to erase overnight losses and were trading flat after Nvidia and Salesforce failed to assuage fears about an overheated AI economy while traders awaited color from today’s round of US / Iran talks.”
The premarket VIX has declined to 17.54 this morning, making a new master Cycle low. Should the SPX rise above 6950.00 this morning, the VIX may test the mid-Cycle support at 17.12. However, the fractal appears complete. The new Master cycle may rise as far as mid-April, allowing time for momentum to build. The minimum target may be the April 7 high near 60.00.
The March 3 options chain shows short gamma between 14.50 and 18.00. Long gamma is heavily populated between 19.00 and 25.00 with institutional presence every 5 points up to 50.00.
TNX appears to be consolidating after rising from Monday’s master Cycle low. The new Master Cycle suggests a new trend developing that may last to mid-April. Today we may see the auction of $200 billion in short-term bills and $44 billion in 7-year notes. The Cycles Model suggests trendline strength may make a comeback this weekend.
ZeroHedge observes, “After yesterday’s 2 Year auction, moments ago the Treasury sold its second coupon for the week when it auctioned off $70BN in 5 Year paper in a rather lackluster auction. ”
USD futures were repelled at resistance at Intermediate resistance at 97.71 this morning. It may be making a (minor) Trading Cycle low in the next two days. The Cycle bottom at 96.56 may be the target. Once accomplished, the USD may rally to mid-April.
Bitcoin has emerged above its Cycle Bottom support at 65069.00 yesterday and may test that level for support. Today we may see a burst of strength that could propel bitcoin higher. The next resistance is Intermediate, at 73064.00. A stronger resistance may be the 52-day Moving Average at 79705.00. Should it exceed these levels, Bitcoin may continue rising through the end of April.
Silver futures have decline beneath Intermediate support at 87.74. Should the decline continue, the next level of support is the 52-day Moving Average at 81.50. Silver may have another month to complete its correction. The Cycles Model offers the mid-Cycle support as the next lower level at 54.05. Further guidance may be revealed as the correction progresses.
Gold futures are being repelled by the Upper trendline at 5250.00. Should it decline beneath its Cycle Top at 5126.00 it may offer a sell signal. The target of its decline may be the mid-cycle support at 3969.33.
Crude oil may be in a downside correction for the next week or so. Its downside target may be the 52-day Moving Average at 60.73. Once accomplished, WTIC may resume its rally to mid-April with strong momentum. A breakout above the current level may engage the Head & Shoulders formation with a possible target near 80.00.