The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
8:00 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures are consolidating in a tight range (6952.00-6978.00) beneath yesterday’s high. While it is close to the ATH, 7002.28 made on January 28, it may not be capable of going higher. The leading stock index, the Industrials are already declining from their high at 50214.00. The Master Cycle was “on time” for the January 28 high and ran into overtime for the DJIA. The NDX all-time-high occurred on October 29 at 26182.00. It’s high on January 28 was a “near miss” at 26165.00. It may be counted as a “truncated high.” The reason? Capex expansion may make the Mag 7 companies turn cash flow negative. The stock buybacks that inflated stock prices may be a thing of the past. An aggressive sell signal awaits the SPX beneath 6917.00 while a confirmed sell is located beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 6884.00.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6955.00. Long gamma strengthens above 6980.00 while short gamma is concentrated beneath 6920.00. While the markets may appear stable, underneath it all the 0DTE speculators may aggravate declines that are gamma enhanced.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are lower, reversing earlier gains and trading near session lows in a narrow, jitter overnight session as traders prepare for a heavy slate of earnings and readings of consumer sales and small-business due later.”
The premarket VIX is consolidating between 17.20 and 17.85 this morning. It has bounced off the low at 16.90 and may be rising to challenge the Cycle Top and trendline near 21.51. The Cycles Model suggests volatility may ramp up momentum in the next week.
The February 11 options chain shows short gamma is strongest at 16.00-17.00. Long gamma is growing between 18.00 and 25.00.
TNX may be making its Master Cycle low as I write, at 41.54. It may be near its Cycle low, if not already there. Once accomplished, it may rise very quickly above the Head & Shoulders neckline, triggering a tsunami in yields. Pressure on yields may come, not from the Treasury, but from corporate bond deals estimated near $740 billion in 2026 alone.
USD futures are consolidating at the Cycle Bottom at 96.69 this morning. There may be support near 96.50. Otherwise, it may decline toward the trendline near 95.50.
Bitcoin is looking for support in uncharted territory. The 50% retracement level is at 66130.00. The 61.8% Fib retracement lies at 64725.00. These levels may be tested before the retracement is over. Under duress, bitcoin may decline to 62000.00. Volatility may rise later this week and it is uncertain which direction it may take.
Silver tested its Intermediate resistance at 85.10 yesterday, then declined to 80.24 this morning. the 52-day Moving Average support lies at 76.19. Should this wide-ranging consolidation decline beneath the 52-day, it may seek support at the trendline at 60.00. Trending support lies at the mid-Cycle line at 51.16.