The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
1:22 pm
Good Afternoon!
SPX has declined beneath the 52-day Moving Average and trendline, both at 6871.64 this afternoon. This move offers a sell signal for the index. Take appropriate action. There appears to be no buyers of this dip. Dealers may attempt to salvage a bounce back to the Max pain zone near 6930.00 by the close. However, should that attempt fail beneath 6880.00, a larger decline may ensue.
8:15 am
Good Morning!
Yesterday SPX declined from the 7000.00 barrier to test the 52-day Moving Average and Ending Diagonal trendline at 6861.10, then bounced. This morning SPX futures rose to 6941.80, a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, then fell back It is currently hovering near the 50% retracement level. Today is likely to see another test of the 52-day and trendline. A breakdown may be imminent. The Cycles Model suggests that a breakdown may lead to a 2-month decline. The initial target may be the April 2025 low at 4835.04.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6930.00. Long gamma emerges above 6940.00 while short gamma dwells beneath 6925.00.
Today’s premarket VIX declined to 17.47, remaining above the 52-day Moving Average at 16.70. The buy signal persists. The wide-ranging moves may be in preparation for a breakout. The Cycles Model anticipates a burst of energy following today’s options expiration.
The February 11 options chain shows short gamma below 17.00 while long gamma rules above 18.00.
TNX may be consolidating beneath 43.00 this morning. It may continue its correction by revisiting the Head & Shoulders neckline this week. From there a steady uptrend may ensue. The current Master Cycle may terminate near the Cycle Top at 45.20 in about two weeks.
ZeroHedge reports, “Ahead of today’s much-anticipated quarterly refunding announcement by the US Treasury, some were hopeful that Bessent could pull an anti-Yellen and forecast a gradual decline in long-term issuance in coming quarters, sending yields lower. None of the happened, however, and instead the Treasury did not surprise markets, announcing that this quarter’s refunding total would come in line with estimates, at $125BN (to refund $90.2BN in securities).”
USD continues its consolidation to gather strength for the next push higher. It may probe to Intermediate resistance clustered around the 52-day Moving Average at 98.43. A break out above it may occur by mid-February.
Bitcoin bounced from its low at 72882.55, testing the Cycle Bottom resistance at 76802.00. The Cycles Model anticipates a final probe to its Head & Shoulders target in the next couple of days.
Silver found support at its 52-day Moving Average on Monday. This has encouraged retail dip-buyers to pile in, pushing silver back above its Cycle Top resistance at 86.71. Should the dip buyers persist, silver may burst to a new all-time high over the weekend. The question is, will silver continue appreciably higher in an inversion of the Cycle, or will it collapse down to 60.00 over the next two months…or both? Trading volume has tapered off, giving the impression of limited liquidity. Should silver surpass 100.00, buyers ma be enticed back in. Expect volatility to rule the moves.
Gold futures were repelled at the trendline near 4900.00 today after bouncing from their 52-day Moving Average at 4471.00. A breakout may encourage speculators to bravely buy more, leading to a possible breakout above the high. But first it must rise above resistance. Should it go higher, 6000.00 may be the next logical target.