The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
3:20 pm
SPX may have completed its second bounce. The bounce may have been motivated by dealers attempting to get the SPX out of short gamma beneath 6930.00. It may be followed by a decline to the 52-day Moving average and trendline in a support zone between 6825.00 and 6852.00. Since there may be $40-$5 billion of possible CTA redemptions beneath that level, there may be another bounce back above 6930.00 over the weekend to avert a crisis. The deferred panic may arrive next week as volatility ramps higher.
10:32 am
SPX is approaching Intermediate support 6895.00. A decline beneath it produces a possible sell signal. This is starting to look serious.
ZeroHedge comments, “…aaaand it’s gone!”
8:15 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 7002.00 this morning, beneath the futures high at 7014.80 made yesterday. The Cycles Model may allow a marginal new high today. There is a trading band resistance at 7017.19, giving a possible limitation above 7000.00, round number resistance. There appears to be a psychological magnet at round numbers that attract, but also repel, once accomplished, so SPX may be at an important turning point.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6975.00. Long gamma may emerge above 6990.00 with call strength above 7030.00. Short gamma rises beneath 6930.00 and strengthens beneath 6900.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are higher, led by tech, after the first batch of Mag7 earnings with gold breaking new record highs again, rising as high as $5600. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.2% while the Nasdaq if barely in the green…”
The premarket VIX is consolidating just beneath the 52-day Moving Average at 46.91 this morning. The VIX tends to give advance notice of possible trend changes in the SPX. A cross above the 52-day Moving Average in the VIX may precede a possible decline beneath the 52-day Moving Average in the SPX by just a few days. The Cycles Model suggests the VIX may begin to rise in earnest today.
The February 4 options chain show Max Pain at 16.00. Short gamma shows up in 14.50 to 15.00. while long gamma rises above 17.00 with some conviction up to 30.00. Thee appears to be very little fear.
TNX appears to be resting in place, but that may soon change, as the week may end in yet another surge of trending strength. $200 billion of short term treasury bills are scheduled for auction today, along with $44 billion of 7-year notes. The rally may extend for three more weeks with a potential target at the Cycle Top resistance at 45.24.
USD is consolidating above its Master Cycle low , but beneath the Cycle Bottom resistance at 96.25, above which a buy signal may be made. A burst of energy may propel the USD above resistance this weekend, sending it on a rally that may last to mid-March. USD shorts may panic as it rises above the multiple resistance at 98.52.
The Japanese Yen is consolidating today, with a potential resumption of its rise from its Master Cycle low. The Cycles Model indicates another week of possible rally prior to a correction back down to the trendline. at 64.75. Japan’s snap election on February 8 may change the trajectory of the Yen temporarily in a possible double directional change in February. In the meantime, the BOJ decided not to raise interest rates again from .75% to 1.00% for the time being.
Bitcoin has reversed away from its Intermediate resistance at 90705.00 as it resumes its decline toward the Head & Shoulders target. While the current Master Cycle may only have a week left in its proposed tour, panic may set in to drive BTC down toward its target. Should the decline last more than a week, a double panic decline may ensue the following week. Keep alert.
Silver futures rose to 121.75 this morning, in a super-extended Cycle. While this Maser Cycle is beyond its normal boundaries, the Cycles Model shows a potential pivot due tomorrow. When it occurs, the Cycles Model anticipates a correction lasting to early April. There are powers that may be interested in driving the price of silver down by 50%. The Cycles may accommodate them.