The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
7:45 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 6977.70 this morning, before backing down. There is an even chance of rising to a new ATH, but with limitations, due to the rather flat trading channel. The Current Cycle Top resistance is at 7003.00 with the possibility of a breakout high toward 7024.00. The current Master Cycle may end this week, so the prospects for an imminent reversal are rising. Whether the rebound rises above 6986.33 or not, this final move may be considered a fifth (and final)Wave. While the NDX futures are up to a high of 25916.00 this morning, the DJIA futures are down 270.00 points this morning. Neither appear in a position to make a new ATH at this time.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6955.00. Long gamma rules above 6980.00 while short gamma dominates beneath 6950.00. A call wall is in place at 7030.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are higher, led by Tech, and approaching record levels from earlier this month as geopolitical and headline risk subsides while the market focuses on looming Mag 7 earnings and Wednesday’s Fed decision is expected to be a non-event. Equities are poised for another attempt at 7k.”
The premarket VIX is consolidating above 15.98 as it rises from its Master Cycle low made on January 22. Net short positions in the VIX are the highest in a decade among asset managers. Conditions are such that, should VIX rise above its 52-day Moving Average at 16.95, short covering may add fuel to a rally later this week and into next.
Tomorrow’s VIX options expiration shows Max Pain at 17.00. Massive short gamma positions reside from 15.00 to 16.00. Long gamma strengthens above 18.00 and rises to 40.00.
TNX rose above mid-Cycle support at 42.28 this morning, confirming the buy signal made by the breakout above the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 42.05. A resumption of trending strength may reappear by the end of the week. The Cycles Model suggests the uptrend may continue to the week of February 16. A likely target may be the Cycle Top at 45.25 by then. The upcoming auction of $70 billion of 5-year Treasury notes is scheduled for today in a light auction week.
ZeroHedge reports, “The first coupon auction of the week just took place, and it could not have gone any better.
According to the US Treasury, $69BN of 2 Year paper was just sold at a high yield of 3.580%, up from the 3.499% in December, and stopped through the When Issued 3.594% by 1.4bps, the biggest stop through since August.”
USD made a new extended Master Cycle low at 96.40 this morning. It is testing a massive trendline that existed since 2011, currently just above 96.00. Despite the naysayers, the USD is merely making an intermediate low in a series of lows rising from 70.70 made in 2008. Dollar shorts have ruled the roost since January 2025 and now are in need of a change in direction. The Cycles Model anticipates a surge out of the low by this weekend.
The Japanese Yen continues its rally from its Master Cycle low made on January 13. The Cycles Model suggests up to two more weeks of rally off the low. It suggests that the month of February may be a very busy month.
Bitcoin is easing back from its retracement high at 88015.00 this morning. It may continue by retesting the 52-day Moving Average at 90035.00 over the next few days, completing a Master Cycle high.
Silver futures rose to 113.44 in the overnight session, but is trading at a premium to the cash market. It appears that the high of 117.39 was made yesterday. It is uncertain on how it may show up in the cash market today, which doesn’t get reported until the end of the day. However, it appears that a high may have been established.