The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
3:00 pm
SPX did not succeed in making a new all-time high in the the cash market, while doing so briefly in the futures. It may be due to continue its decline. Trendline support is at 6925.00, offering an aggressive sell signal while the 52-day Moving Average is currently at 6824.50, offering confirmation parallel to an earlier support trendline. This is not a time to fall asleep at the wheel.
8:00 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures declined to 6960.10 this morning after halting its ascent at 6986.33, reversing from its trendline and short-term Cycle band at 6984.00. The wedge-shaped formation is known as an Ending Diagonal. The Cycles Model anticipates a possible 3-4 week decline with possible panic events on the weeks of January 19 and February 2.
9:10 am
SPX futures rose to 6997.40 on the premarket session. It has since pulled back beneath yesterday’s high. There may be an attempt at round number resistance at 7000.00 after the open.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6970.00. Long gamma rules above 6985.00 while short gamma gains dominance beneath 6925.00. No surprises expected here.
VIX premarket rose to 15.74 this morning, back above the trendline at 15.25. It is on a buy signal after yesterday’s breakout, although very few are taking the plunge. Institutions have been selling the VIX at the lows in the past week. Yet, VIX may get a jolt of trending strength today that may propel it above the 52-day Moving Average at 17.10, followed by another surge later this week. The Cycles Model anticipates the rally may last to the end of the month, with a possible extension in February.
Tomorrow’s options chain shows short gamma residing at 14.00-15.00. Long gamma begins at 16.00, but trails off above 25.00. Not much concern here with near all-time high valuations.
TNX futures rose to 42.04 this morning while the cash market topped at 41.95. The neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation lies at 42.05. The neckline resistance was pricked on January 9, but is consolidating beneath the neckline this morning. The current Master Cycle is coming to a close this week. TNX is parked in neutral at this time. A decline to the 52-day Moving Average at 41.24, or lower, may offer a perfect setup (false flag) for a breakout
ZeroHedge reports, “Shortly after a solid 3Y auction, the first of the year, priced just through the WI by 0.1bps, moments ago we got the first sale of benchmark 10Y paper for 2026 in what was another solid auction.
Today’s sale of $39BN in 10Y paper priced at 4.173% just after 1pm ET. This was barely changed from the 4.175% in December in what appears to be duration paralysis. And with the When Issued trading at 4.180%, the auction stopped through the WI by 0.7bps, this was the strongest 10Y auction since September.”
Bitcoin is consolidating above critical support at 89265.00 where the Intermediate support and 52-day Moving Average lie. A decline beneath that level offers a confirmed sell signal. The Cycles Model affirms th Head & Shoulders formation , suggesting the decline may resume for another 4 weeks. Since Bitcoin may offer insight into international money movements, the decline may signal capital controls being installed in Europe as they prepare for war.
Silver futures rose to 88.54 this morning thus far. The Cycles Model suggests the next target may be 100.00, but the rally may also end abruptly in the next week or so. Due care is needed here, as a reflexive move may be panic driven.
Please note: I have several appointments outside the office for moss of the day.