The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
8:00 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures overshot the 50-day Moving Average at 5622.00, rising to an overnight high at 5638.50. Today is day 269 of the current Master Cycle, an allowable extension. The April month-end was important in that the March 31 closing was at 5611.85, showing a loss of over 50 points for the month in the SPX. Meanwhile, the NDX made a small gain for the month after a vertical lift-off at the end of the day while the DJIA was down 1332.00 points in April. The Cycles Model anticipates a decline to mid-June once the reversal is underway. The sell signal remains beneath 5481.00. MSFT and META are next for earnings reports. Both have been running hard to break even in April.
Today’s options chain shows Mas Pain at 56505.00. Long gamma may begin at 5510.00 while short gamma begins at 5500.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are sharply higher, erasing all of April’s losses on blowout earnings from MSFT and META, and relief over signs the Trump administration is stepping back from its harshest tariff threats. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures rose 1.2% to 5655, the highest level since before Trump’s Liberation Day announcement and pointing to an eighth consecutive session of gains for the cash index; Nasdaq futures gained 1.7%, as META and MSFT added +6.3% and +7.8%, respectively; most Mag 7 names, NVDA (3.7%) and semis are higher given META’s CapEx increase and MSFT’s reiteration on CapEx guidance. The dollar is higher after the BOJ finally flipped dovish and slashed its growth target pushing USDJPY to 144.5 this morning. It’s light on overnight news as most of Europe is closed today ex-UK along with China; US/Ukraine signed an agreement over the country’s natural resources, UK Manf PMI printed better but remained in contraction, and Trump reiterated that there is a “very good chance” of a deal with China on NewsNation last night. Commodities are mostly lower: WTI -1.2%; Gold -1.7%. The US economic calendar includes weekly jobless claims (8:30am), April manufacturing PMI (9:45am), ISM manufacturing and March construction spending (10am). Fed’s external communications blackout ahead of the May 7 FOMC meeting. Apple and Amazon results are due after the market close.”
VIX futures made a new low at 23.67 this morning, on day 255 of the current Master Cycle. This may be the final low of the corrective decline. The Cycles Model shows an increase of volatility tomorrow that may that may be associated with a reversal. It is also showing a possible panic event starting next week.
10-year Treasury futures declined to 41.23 this morning with a cash open at 41.26 on day 269 of the current Master Cycle. The powers-that-be are apparently doing their utmost to show a good result for the month of April, as the month of March closed at 42.47, a gain for treasury bonds.
USD futures are lifting above their consolidation above the Cycle Bottom support. Recognition of the change in trend is still preliminary. The Cycles Model suggests a possible panic rally as dollar shorts run for cover.
Bitcoin reached its 61.8% retracement level at 96412.00 this morning. It may yet go higher, but the Master Cycle is stretched and due for a strong reversal.
Gold futures dropped through the trendline to 3209.60 and challenged the Cycle Top at3221.01 this morning, confirming a sell signal. The Cycles Model has gold declining to mid-July, allowing plenty of time for serious damage being done to the long position. It is likely to fall to the mid-Cycle support at 2762.69, if not lower. Gold will ultimately recover, but painfully so for recent investors.
ZeroHedge comments, “Just one week ago, China seemingly couldn’t get enough of gold, and the price of spot briefly touched a record $3500 as a result of, among other things, staggering inflows into Chinese gold ETFs such as the Huaan Yifu, Bosera and Guotai gold ETFs.”
