The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
7:40 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures are consolidating beneath yesterday’s Master Cycle high, after having closed beneath the 1987 trendline yesterday. The NDX also made its retracement high yesterday at the 50% Fibonacci level. The DJIA retracement high is still intact as of April 15. Yesterday only 12 of the 3300 companies in the NYSE closed at their 52-week highs. In other words, the equities market is in shambles after three weeks of bouncing off the April 7 bottom. The macroeconomic outlook is also getting darker…
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5500.00. Long gamma begins above 5550.00 while short gamma starts beneath 5450.00.
VIX futures touched a new low overnight at 24.60, but bounced to a high of 25.60 this morning. It is also due for its Master Cycle low. Analysts view VIX’s move as a return to normalcy. However, the technical landscape is far from normal. The current formation may be labeled a Leading Diagonal. The stress is gone for now. However, this suggests the beginning of a new trend.
USD futures may be bouncing from its retracement low at the Cycle Bottom support at 98.63. If so, it may be on the way to new highs above overhead resistance at 101.95 and the 509-day at 103.27. USD is on a buy signal above the Cycle Bottom. There is a double dose of trending strength awaiting in the next couple of days which may surprise the Dollar bears. The Cycles Model indicates the new trend may continue to mid-June.
TNX futures challenged the mid-Cycle support at 42.24 and has subsequently bounced above it this morning, extending the Master Cycle low another day. .Today we get the Treasury borrowing estimates while tomorrow we may see the Q2 Treasury refunding announcement. The Cycles Model suggests trending strength may return by the weekend. From there we may see yields ramp up through the end of May.
Bitcoin is consolidating beneath it April 23 high at 95924.19. It has not yet given a sell signal. However, a decline beneath the mid-Cycle support at 91364.73 may offer one. Once beneath, the Cyclles Model calls for a steep decline to mid-June.
Gold futures are easing lower, but remain in positive territory. A decline beneath the trendline at 3250.00 may offer a sell signal. The All-time high remains from April 22. The Cycles Model suggest that, once it has begun, the decline may last until mid-July.