The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
10:01 am
The Ag Index has given a buy signal, rising above Intermediate support/resistance at 381.89. A rally above the 50-day Moving Average at 389.74 may bring in more investors as prices of agricultural commodities remain resilient. DBA is an ETF that has had a long history in ag commodities.
9:47 am
BKX is at a crossroad today. Should the Fed inject liquidity into the financial system, BKX may rally to its mid-Cycle resistance at 123.28 in the next week, buying more time above support near 100.00. The alternative may be a break beneath a potential Head & Shoulders neckline triggering a waterfall event.
ZeroHedge reminds us that banks are not what they pretend to be.
8:00 am
Good Morning!
NDX futures are consolidating this morning as it digests the prior moves. Over the next week we may see the NDX moving toward the 61.8% retracement value near 20000.00, which corresponds with the trendline that underscored the rally since October 2022. The bear market may resume toward the end of April, resulting in a possible panic decline in May.
SPX futures are also consolidating inside yesterday’s wide trading range. SPX may continue the consolidation for the next week, as overhead resistance appears near 5500.00. It has already made a 50% retracement near 5500.00. The next Fibonacci level is the 61.8% retracement at 5654.00. In addition, the mid-Cycle resistance lies at 5771.00, while the 100-day Moving Average provides a higher possible resistance at 5879.56.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5385.00. Long gamma may begin above 5400.00 while short gamma may start beneath 5350.00.
VIX futures are also consolidating within yesterday’s trading range. Should the consolidation continue, VIX may complete its unfinished fractal to a new high in early May.
The April 16 (monthly) options chain shows Max Pain at 20.50. Short gamma resides between 15.00 and 20.00. Long gamma begins at 21.00 and is well populated to 75.00.
TNX futures dipped to an overnight low at 43.82, but surged to the present level at 44.44 this morning. It is on a buy signal and may surge to the Cycle Top resistance in the next week. Basis trades are disintegrating, causing massive selling of Treasuries to fill the holes. Yields are challenging Bessent’s “red line” at 4.45%, sucking liquidity out of the market. Should the Fed unleash its liquidity, we may see a temporary decline in yields and a sigh of relief in the markets. Investors are facing “market fatigue” as both stocks and bonds have become unsteady.
ZeroHedge reminds, “Henry Ford once astutely observed that a revolution would occur overnight if people truly understood the banking and monetary system.
That’s because modern banking is an elaborate illusion—one that lulls people into a false sense of security… until it’s too late.
Large banks can fail within hours, and life savings can vanish overnight.
The US banking system is particularly vulnerable.”
Gold has extended its trend to 3255.00 as International politics turn belligerent. The extension may last to the first week of May.
Crude oil may have made its Master Cycle low a week earlier than anticipated in the Model. The Model has turned neutral as we await further developments. The 61.8% retracement of the rally out of the 2020 low is at 53.87. Should crude extend its decline, it may reach round number support at 50.00.
USD futures reached a morning low of 98.80, putting it in reach of its Master Cycle target. This extension may be setting up as a false move, so be aware that a move above the Cycle Bottom resistance at 99.53 may produce a very strong rally.