The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
10:21 am
The Ag Index is aiming for support at 370.80 by early next week. This is a good time to accumulate shares of Ag commodities as a reversal may be imminent. This is one of the few investments that have recently established an uptrend and have a good distance to go. Note the possible Head & Shoulders target. Despite improving conditions, food and food products may see much higher prices.
10:09 am
The EuroStoxx 50 is heading lower after making a Master Cycle high on the 18th. It has crossed beneath both the Cycle Top at 56.01 and challenged Intermediate support at 55.21, creating a possible sell signal. Those seeking to make the gains made since November should lock them in. Analysts now suggest that Europe is now a contrarian trade.
9:51 am
Liquidity is faltering as BKX declines to support at 122.98. Should it decline beneath that level, a sell signal may be generated. The Cycles Model allows the decline to continue to mid-April. The Cycle Bottom at 101.39 is a possible target.
8:00 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures reached a low of 5684.60 this morning, before a bounce above 5700.00. It is hovering within short gamma which begins at 5730.00. The 1987 trendline appears near 5470.00 and is directly in the path of this decline. The potential target of this decline may be near 5100.00, which is marked with a horizontal trendline. The Cycles Model suggests a 2-3 week sharp decline ending with a bounce that may remain beneath the 1987 trendline.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5740.00 with short gamma beginning beneath 5730.00. This is a dangerous situation for the longs, since trading volumes have been thin as investors are losing heart over the losses thus far.
ZeroHedge reports, “US stock futures faded earlier gains, but were also off session lows after a tariff-driven selloff in equities on Wednesday which hit the Mag7 names. Futures on the S&P 500 are flat after Trump announced 25% uniform tariffs on auto imports, while Nasdaq futures dropped 0.3% amid a reversal of the Monday price action as investors seem to be back to the recession playbook ahead of April 2 announcement. Mag 7, Cyclicals and High Short Interest are among the worst performing baskets, while Defensives outperformed. AI and data center names faced a slew of negative catalysts so far this week, including NVDA’s China environmental curbs, sell-side report on MSFT lease cancellation, BABA’s comments earlier this week: NVDA-5.7%; JPM’s Data Center basket -3.0%. Commodities are higher led by oil and base metals. Outside the US, China ADRs outperformed US domestics with KWEB up 54bps today as China PBOC adviser promised (once again) that China will ramp up stimulus if growth falters.”
VIX futures surged to 19.18 before pulling back, still within positive territory. The Fractals are now subdividing as VIX may probe much higher.
The April 2 options expiration show Max Pain at 18.00. Short gamma occupies space between 15.00 and 17.00. Long gamma begins at 19.00 and strengthens at 24.00.
TNX has lurched above Intermediate resistance and the descending trendline, creating a buy signal. Today is day 252 of the current Master Cycle, leaving about a week to continue its ascent. It is likely that the 50-day Moving Average at 44.32 may have an effect on the probe higher. However, the trendline may also provide support. The Cycles Model suggests a 2-week retracement in mid-April before TNX powers higher.
ZeroHedge observes, “Hot on the heels of yesterday’s stellar 2Y auction, moments ago the Treasury sold $70BN in 5 year paper in an auction which may not have been quite as impressive at first sight, but which was nonetheless just as solid when taking a closer look below the surface.
The auction stopped at a high yield of 4.100%, down from 4.123% last month and the lowest since September; however, it also tailed the When Issued 4.095% by 0.5bps, the first tailing 5Y auction since October.”
Bitcoin is consolidating/;correcting beneath its mid-Cycle resistance at 87593.52. While the correction appears complete, there may be 1-2 more weeks before a reversal. A possible target may be the 500-day Moving Average at 89581.24.
Gold futures powered up to 3094.85 while the Continuous Contract on the CME lags behind. Gold may have reached its initial target near 3100.00 today, day 253 in the Master Cycle. There is still room to go higher, but time is running out on this rally. There is no signa, so we await further developments.