The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
8:00 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures are lower, reaching a low of 6041.30. The all-time high remains at January 24 at 6128.18 We await the decline beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 6000.00 to obtain a sell signal. Goldman Sachs reports that wage earners making less than $30,0000.00 are falling further behind while middle income consumers are tapping savings and adding debt at an insurmountable pace. Eggs at the local Aldi’s go for $8.00 per dozen, limit 2.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6065.00-6070.00. Long gamma rises above 6100.00 wile short gamma prevails beneath 6030.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures, treasuries and the dollar are all lower as the latest tariff news sparked a risk-off move, with traders also looking ahead to testimony from Jerome Powell at 10am ET today. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are down 0.2% while Nasdaq futures drop 0.5%, as Mag 7 stocks all lower with NVDA (-1.2%) and TSLA (-0.6%) underperforming; Europe’s Stoxx 600 index was held back by tumbling mining and travel shares and a gauge of Asian stocks dropped. Trump signed the 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports with no exceptions after market close yesterday. Moreover, the announcement of reciprocal tariffs is expected to arrive in the next few days, which adds further uncertainty on stocks. Gold touched a fresh record high rising as high as $2942 before retracing, while an index of the dollar dropped from Monday, and treasury yields rose. Commodities are mostly higher: oil and aluminum added 1.3% and 1.2%, respectively; Ags are also higher. Today, key macro focus are Powell’s testimony, KO/GILD/SPGI earnings and any updates from Washington.”
VIX futures have risen to 16.19 this morning, stopping at the 50-day Moving Average at 16.19. The Cycles Model shows VIX steady-to-rising over the next week.
Tomorrow’s options chain shows Max Pain at 16.00. There is a small contingent of short gamma at 15.00. Long gamma begins at 17.00 and strengthens to 29.00.
TNX gapped higher to 45.37 this morning. It is now above the 50-day Moving Average at 44.84 and on a buy signal. The Cycles Model shows steady gains through the week with acceleration of yields next week.
Bitcoin is consolidating beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 98752.50. Should it break higher in the next week, it may be set up for a decline for the next two months. The opposite may also be true.