The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
7:45 am
Good Morning!
NDX futures are consolidating in a range, testing the 50-day Moving Average at 21275.00 at the low and the Intermediate resistance at 21400.26 at the high. Should it break out above Intermediate resistance, it may challenge the January 31 high at 21846.00. Tomorrow brings a Cycle Pivot day and a possible high volatility/strength day, which supports that outlook. The current outlook does not support a new all-time high.
ZeroHedge remarks, “More U.S. CEOs exited their companies in 2024 than in any year in more than two decades, with economic and technological factors contributing to the trend, according to a recent report from global outplacement company Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.”
SPX futures are hovering just above the 50-day Moving Average at 5988.00. The Cycles Model supports the probability that SPX may make a nominal new all-time high. However, the current Master Cycle may be running out of time. Wednesday may be a high volatility/reversal day.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at a highly-contested 6000.00. Long gamma may begin above 6030.00 while short gamma dominates beneath 5955.00.
ZeroHedge rpeorts, “US equity futures are flat, recovering from earlier losses after China’s restrained response to US tariffs, and a last-minute reprieve for Canada and Mexico. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are flat, having dropped 0.5% earlier after China tariffs went into effect at midnight and China retaliated; Nasdaq futures rose 0.2% thanks to a bid for parts of the Mag7/semis complex (GOOGL +0.7%, AMZN +0.5%, AAPL -0.5%, MSFT flat, META +0.6%, NVDA +0.4% and TSLA +0.5%). Unlike yesterday, USD is weaker to start the session, dropping 0.2% as some traders flagged relief that the worst-case scenarios seem to be avoided. The bond market reaction is muted, with the yield curve bear steepening 1-2bps; the 10Y yield rose 2bps to 4.58%. Commodities are lower with energy getting hit and WTI crude oil futures falling more than 2% to YTD low. Today’s macro focus is on JOLTS and Factory Orders”
VIX futures are consolidating inside yesterday’s trading range. VIX is due for a burst of strength beginning on Wednesday with a possible increase later this week. Note the subtle but persistent uptick in the lows. The Current Master Cycle may not be complete until the end of March.
Tomorrow’s options chain shows Max Pain at 17.00. Short gamma is well populated at 15.00-17.00. Long gamma begins at 18.00 and shows rising sentiment to 25.00.
TNX rose to 45.94 this morning, challenging/crossing Intermediate resistance at 45.87 and leaving the Master Cycle low at 44.62 behind. The Cycles Model shows steady progress this week, with another burst of volatility over the weekend. Today an $85 billion 42-day T-bill auction will be held. Upcoming auctions are to be announced.
Bitcoin is hovering above its 50-day Moving Average at 99011.00 this morning. Should the bounce be over, Bitcoin may resume its decline beneath the 50-day. The Cycles Model offers two more weeks of possible decline before a substantial retracement may be seen. A decline beneath the trendline near 91000.00 may open the door for a panic situation.
USD futures are pulling back, possibly testing Intermediate support at 108.26 this morning. USD may continue to consolidate beneath its Cycle Top over the next few days. However, Trending strength may return next week to push USD to new highs.