January 30, 2025

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

7:30 am

Good Morning!

NDX futures made an overnight high of 21588.20, challenging the Intermediate support at 21408.77, where a sell signal may be made.  NDX still maintains the long-term trend, but is being subject to increasing volatility and inability to make new highs.  NVDA closed beneath the 200-day Moving Average, hardly a performance worthy of the Mag-7.

 

SPX futures rose to 6071.70 in the overnight session, then declined to “Max Pain” at 6050.00 at present.  There may be an attempt to close the month of January above the December 31 close at 5881.00.  Keep in mind the 50-day Moving Average is at 5984.28.  Beneath it lies a confirmed sell signal.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6050.00.  Long gamma lies above 6070.00 while short gamma lurks beneath 6000.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures and European markets are broadly higher led by Tech/Small-Caps following a dovish Powell press conference (which reversed the hawkish FOMC statement) and solid, if hardly stellar (see MSFT), earnings. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.25%, off session highs; Nasdaq futures rise 0.3% with Mag 7 names mixed (GOOGL +0.7%, AMZN flat, AAPL -0.4%, MSFT -4%, META +1%, NVDA -0.8% and TSLA +2%). European markets are solid in the green ahead of what is widely expected to be the 5th consecutive ECB rate cut later Thursday to revive the sluggish eurozone economy. Bond yields are lower as the curve flattens and USD weakens on the back of continued strength in the JPY which will continue until Japan’s exports crater. Commodities are mixed with strength in both base and precious metals while oil has reversed earlier losses. Today’s macro data focus is on jobless claims and Q4 GDP data ahead of tomorrow’s Dec PCE print, after the close we get AAPL earnings.”

 

VIX futures are consolidating above the 50-day Moving Average at 16.08.    The retracement appears complete, or nearly so.  The Cycles Model shows increasing trending strength wit a spike over the weekend.

 

Bitcoin may have made its retracement high at 105613.70 on a day of trending strength today.  If so, the retracement may be over and a decline may be imminent.  The Cycles Model calls for three more weeks of decline.  A sell signal may be made should BTC decline beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 99249.57.

 

TNX extended its master Cycle low to 44.88 this morning, just above the 50-day Moving Average at 44.72.  Today is day 259, so the reversal appears timely.  The Cycles Model suggests a resumed rally to the end of March.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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