January 22, 2025

The Lord’s Prayer

Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name.  Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven.  Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us.  And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil.  Amen.

8:00 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures ramped to a morning high at 6080.40 and is hovering nearby.  Whether it makes a new ATH above 6100.00 this morning or not, it is a candidate for the terminus of the current Master Cycle.  This morning it may complete 6 days of unbroken rally in a very steep Ending Diagonal.  Ending Diagonals beg a complete reversal.   The Cycles Model suggests this morning may be the right time.  The rising trendline at the bottom of the red Diagonal has been broken while the December 6 ATH has not, as I write.  A reversal may inevitably decline beneath whatever support may be left  by the red trendline currently at 5850.00.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6025.00.  Long gamma begins above 6040.00 while short gamma has a massive presence beneath 6020.00.  Dealers are very long at present while non-dealers are short.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher to start the third day of Trump’s presidency – and not too far from a new all time high – led by tech following blowout Netflix earnings and a fresh extension of the AI frenzy, coupled with signs that US tariffs on trade partners could be less harsh than feared. As of 8am ET, S&P futures are up 0.5%, rising for the third day in a row, and lifted by strong corporate results; Nasdaq 100 futures surge 0.9%, spurred by a 15% premarket jump in Netflix to a new all time high above $1,000 after the streamer reported a blowout quarter with record subscriber gains, and Oracle which jumped 9% after the company teamed up with SoftBank and OpenAI to form a $100 billion joint venture that will fund AI infrastructure.”

 

NDX futures have risen to 21775.60 thus far this morning on he AI push and Netflix earnings.  The Cycle Top resistance is at 22018.99 with the upper trendline just above it.  Note that resistance is beneath the ATH made in December.

Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 21520.00.  Long gamma may be found above 21525.00 while sort gamma lies beneath 21500.00.

ZeroHedge remarks, “As we wrote in our preview note, it would take a lot to “wow” NFLX bulls according to Goldman while UBS chimed in that the company would have to announce a price hike, and… well, the company heard the two banks, not only reporting Q4 results that blew away expectations but also hiked prices in the US… and also announced a $15 billion buyback to boot!”

 

VIX futures declined to a new low at 14.64 thus far this morning.  There is a potential for the VIX to reach 14.27 today, but it is also due for a reversal this morning..  VIX Cycles may be strong once the correction is finished.

Today is monthly options expiration for the VIX.  Shorts may harvest some gains today, but short gamma lightens up considerable in next week’s expiration.

 

Bitcoin is not participating in the aftermath of the inauguration.  It had an extended Master Cycle high on Monday followed by a prompt reversal.  The Cycles Model suggests that Bitcoin may decline into mid-February as market liquidity dries up.

 

TNX may be due for a short term bounce today after consolidating above yesterday’s low.  Today’s Treasury auction features a small $13 billion 20-year bond.  It may be well subscribed, due to size.  A $20 billion 10-year TIP is offered tomorrow that is not likely to make waves.  The February Treasury auction schedule may be a completely different story.  The Cycles Model suggests yields may decline until mid-February when larger amounts hit the auction block.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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