The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
2:00 pm
SPX may have met its Cyclical target in time and price this afternoon. Those with cajones may wish to sell/sell short at 6000.00. While it may feel like SPX is at its ATH, it has simply retraced to its descending trendline, completing its hourly Wave [ii]. Intermediate support lies at 5982.60 where a sell signal may be triggered. The 50-day Moving Average lies at 5947.17. A trap has been laid for the bulls. Something may snap over the inaugural weekend that may trap many in the wrong position. Washington is on high alert.
ZeroHedge suggests, “This one is a “must read” if you ask me. One of my favorite investors that I love reading and following, Harris Kupperman, has offered up his thoughts on the Fed and markets for 2025.”
8:15 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 5977.60 thus far this morning. I had assumed that the 50-day Moving Average at 5953.00 would be an appropriate target for this retracement. However, Ms. Market has a different opinion. The next retracement level may be the Intermediate resistance at 5979.00, followed by round number resistance at 6000.00 without violating any of the retracement rules. SPX should not exceed the January 6 peak at 6021.04.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5935.00-5940.00. Long gamma edges out the shorts at 5950.00 but doesn’t become strong until above 6000.00. Short gamma gains precedence at 5925.00 and strengthens beneath 5900.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher modestly, rebounding from yesterday’s just as modest loss. As of 8:00am, S&P futures rise 0.4%, with the underlying index poised for its biggest weekly gain since November’s election, while Nasdaq 100 futures advanced 0.5% thanks to Mag 7 stocks mostly higher (NVDA +1.3%, TSLA +0.9% and GOOG/L +0.6%) as the latest data and comments from Fed officials suggest the central bank will have room to cut interest rates this year. 10Y Treasury yields edged lower, slipping more than 15 basis points below recent multi-month highs, while the USD is higher. Base metals are mostly higher amid upside surprise on China Q4 and December macro data: Q4 GDP prints 5.4% vs. 5.0% survey vs. 4.6% prior; Retail Sales and IP both surprised to the upside. However, reactions from local Asian markets remain muted. Today, macro focus will be on housing data (Housing Starts and Building Permits).”
VIX futures are consolidating above yesterday’s low at 15.64. However, the Wave Structure may allow a final probe to 14.27 before reversing higher.
The January 22 options chain shows Max Pain at 17.50. Short gamma rules from 13.50 to 17.00. Long gamma rules above 18.00 and is well populated to 50.00.
TNX futures declined to 45.61, while the cash market recorded a low of 45.68. TNX is in the midst of a strong retracement with the initial target at the 50-day Moving Average at 44.36. The decline may show special strength today, suggesting the 50-day may be within reach by the weekend or early next week.
Bitcoin reached a probable Master Cycle high today at 102978.59 on a final day of strength. Fear of missing out (FOMO)may be the driver of this particularly strong retracement. While there is a possibility of a marginal new high in the next 24 hours, the Master Cycle has been stretched nearly to its limit.
USD futures advanced to 109.40, riding the Cycle Top support, showing resilience after challenging support on January 15. However, the Cycles Model hints at an imminent reversal to test the lower boundaries of this correction.