2:58 pm
There’s not much room left in this Ending Diagonal. A breakdown occurs at 6069.00 where one finds the daily Cycle Top support. Time to lighten the longs.
7:30 am The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen.
Good Morning!
SPX futures are hovering beneath yesterday’s new all-time high at 6089.84. The upper trendline of the three month Ending Diagonal is near 6100.00.The options are to either throw-over the trendline or break down beneath the Cycle Top support at 6060.00. Time is running out for the “higher” option, as today is day 271 of the aging Master Cycle. There is an approximate “window” of two weeks on either side of the 258-day average Master Cycle within which to pivot into a possible new trend. It has been noted that a significant amount of liquidity has entered the market through short covering. As the shorts disappear, so does the liquidity. The SPX is skating on thin ice. Bull markets die when the last buyer makes his move.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 6070.00. Long gamma may begin above 6080, strengthening above 6100.00. Short gamma may begin beneath 6065.00, strengthening beneath 6060.00 (Cycle Top).
Bitcoin has made a new all-time high at 104028.61. This compares favorably to an earlier estimated target at 102200.00. While today is day 266 of the current Master Cycle, it is also pegged as a day of strength, which may go in either direction. Should it go higher, an estimated target may be 110000.00. Should it reverse, the first support that may indicate a change of trend is currently at 96541.34.
ZeroHedge remarks, “After toying with its fanatical fan base for much of the past 2 weeks, teasing a breach of the “nice round number” resistance several times only to fade right below it, moments ago bitcoin finally erupted higher with an aggressive buyer taking advantage of the illiquid Asian session and sending the world’s first digital token above $100,000 for the first time ever…”
VIX futures have also been flat this morning after making a possible Master Cycle low at 12.89 yesterday, day 258. The next move may be a slingshot rally above the August 5 high.
The November 10 options chain shows virtually no short gamma. Long gamma begins at 13.00 and the numbers are growing above it.
TNX has climbed out of its hole, rising above the mid-Cycle support/resistance level at 42.06, creating a buy signal. The Cycles Model projects a rally in TNX until early January. The next phase of the rally may take it to 50.00 or higher. Today’s auction schedule shows $185 billion of 4-week and 8-week bills being put on the block, a large sum. In addition Yellen is announcing the upcoming auctions of the 3-year and 10-year notes and the 30-year bonds. Little wonder the Cycles Model calls for a serious increase in trending strength today. In addition, this morning’s jobless claims remain low as the hurricane effects moderate. Not a good reason to cut rates, as many seem to hope.