3:32 pm
Bitcoin stalled at 99772.99 today as it attempted the 100000.00 round number target on day 253 of its (average 258 days) Master Cycle. It may go higher on Monday, but the Cycles Model shows a spike in volatility may come over the weekend. It may be time to start selling…
3:20 pm
SPX finished its rally at a 72.6% retracement of the decline from the all-time high. I had warned earlier this week that the last three days of the week would have high volatility that may lead to a new ATH. This did not happen, although the tension in the markets felt like it. Today alone, the SPX made three attempts at a new high, all of them ending at 5972.00 from a low at 5944.79. Many investors are expecting the SPX to continue its rally to Christmas. In fact, the opposite may be true. Today the SPX showed its fragility by not going any higher. This may be the end of the Cycle.
7:30 am 2 Chronicles 7:14
“If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sins, and will heal their land.”
Good Morning!
SPX futures dipped to 5920.90 this morning before bouncing. Yesterday I announced that it had completed a minor fractal on the Cycles turn date (day 258). The Cycles Model suggests today may be a high volatility day, which may strengthen the reversal. Of course, there are no guarantees in this profession. However, there are multiple indicators of an end to new all-time highs.
This morning’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5920.00. Long gamma may begin above 5950.00, while short gamma resides beneath 5900.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US futures are lower but well off session lows as investors turn to other regions for better value following this month’s torrid rally in US equities, while bitcoin inched closer toward the landmark $100,000 level, trading less than a thousand dollars away from the vaunted resistance level. As of 8:00am, S&P futures are down 0.1%, and Nasdaq futures drop 0.2%, as NVDA and META fell -1.0% and -0.7%, respectively, while the rest of Mag 7 are mostly unchanged. Bond yields are 2-4bp lower and the Bloomberg Dollar index rose 0.3% to stay on course for an eighth straight week of gains as it hit a 2 year high as the EUR tumbled after another set of dismal PMI prints. In commodities, oil and base metals are lower; precious metals are higher. Today, the key focus will be global PMI releases. Expectations are for the PMI Mfg and Srvcs to print at 48.9 and 55.0, respectively, largely in line with expectations.”
VIX futures are consolidating within yesterday’s trading range. It made an expanded flat correction, indicating a readiness to proceed higher. It is on a buy signal with confirmation at the 50-day Moving Average, indicating an accumulation phase may be underway.
The November 27 options chain shows Max Pain at 17.00. Short gamma is heavily populated between 12.50 and 16.00. Long gamma may begin at 20.00 and is beginning to populate at 30.00
The Shanghai Composite was repulsed at the Cycle Top resistance at 3385.98 and has begun its descent. The Cycles Model suggests up to 2 weeks of decline lie ahead. The Cycle Bottom at 2761.58 may be the target, with a possible undershoot.
Bitcoin is approaching round number (100000.00) attraction on day 253 of the Master Cycle. Once accomplished, the round number may become resistance as sellers step in. Another milestone was made yesterday as the assets of bitcoin exchange-traded funds surpassed $100 billion, suggesting high retail involvement. The Cycles Model gives a possible target between 100900.00 and 102200.00. However, nothing is guaranteed, as the Model also implies a double dose of volatility over the weekend.
ZeroHedge remarks, “Bitcoin exchange-traded funds now collectively manage approximately $104 billion, and are on track to surpass gold ETFs in net assets.
United States Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs) broke $100 billion in net assets for the first time on Nov. 21, according to data from Bloomberg Intelligence.”
TNX futures declined to 43.83 in the overnight session, approaching a possible structural limit at 43.70. The correction may be complete today, as bond volatility may rise over the weekend and during the following week. The rally may be set to resume as the current Cycle may continue its rise to the first week of January. A near-term potential target may be 5.3%, with possible higher yields on the way. The Treasury auction schedule shows no long-term bonds being offered this month, piling on the renewals for next year and threatening rising volatility.
Gold futures challenged the diagonal trendline at 2710.00 and promptly reversed on day 259 of its Master Cycle. Gold commentators call the bounce a “perfect upside panic,” calling for a resumption of the bull market. However, the Cycles Model now suggests a decline may be underway until the end of the year. The trendline for this massive rally appears at 1900.00.
Crude oil futures rallied overnight to 70.75, challenging the 50-day Moving Average at 70.45. However, it has pulled back from that resistance and may be due to continue its decline through the Head & Shoulders formation and possibly to its stated target by the end of December.