7:30 am 2 Chronicles 7:14
“If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sins, and will heal their land.”
Good Morning!
NDX futures have declined over the weekend ot a low at 19861.50. The first support level is the Short-term line at 19810.58, beneath which an aggressive sell signal may be provided. Addiionl supports are given at the Intermediate, level at 19528.22 and the 50-day Moving Average at 19264.69 where confirmed sell signals may be obtained. The current administration wants these levels as high as possible, knowing that their party may lose their majority should there be losses in equities by the end of October. On the other hand, the Cycles Model indicates a declining equities market until the third week of November. Whether there is a sufficient decline by the end of October to indicate a possible change in the administration is yet to be seen.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 19830.00. Long Gamma may begin at 19840.00 while short gamma may lie beneath 19800.00. The conviction lies on the long side of the equation.
SPX futures declined to a morning low at 5713.80 thus far. The ATH remains at September 26. Should the SPX decline beneath 5700.00, a panic sell-off may begin by Wednesday, according to the Cycles Model.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5735.00. Long gamma may begin above 5750.00 while short gamma starts beneath 5715.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are lower as the selling in Treasuries accelerates after strong US jobs data slashed bets on a big interest-rate reduction next month from the Federal Reserve and an overnight surge in oil pushed Brent to $80 (see last night’s “A Historic Short Squeeze In Oil Has Only Begun“), which sent both the 2Y and 10Y above 4.00%.”
VIX futures reached a morning high at 21.45 before easing, making a new high, but not yet breaking out above the Cycle Top at 21.64. VIX may be gathering strength to break out this week. The Cycles Model suggests a new high by the end of October. Panic rallies may occur during the weeks of October 14 and 21.
The October 9 options chain shows Max Pain at 21.00-22.00. Short gamma resided from 15.00 to 20.00. Long gamma may begin at 23.00, but contains little enthusiasm above that level.
TNX futures made a morning high at 40.22 (cash at 40.18 thus far). While the Cycles Model suggests the possible end of this rally by the end of next week, it also indicated a strong uptick in strength of this probe higher. The objective of this rally appears to be the upper trendline and mid-Cycle resistance at 41.85. Should it break through, the next resistance may be the Cycle Top at 41.85.
TheEpochTimes reports, “Mortgage rates jumped by more than 0.25 percent on Friday after a government report showed that the labor market continued to remain strong.
The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate jumped 27 points from 6.26 percent to 6.53 percent on Friday, according to data from the Mortgage News Daily (MND) mortgage rate index that is updated on a daily basis. This is one of the biggest single-day rate increases MND has ever tracked.”
USD futures paused this morning after a week of trending strength vaulted it above all nearby resistances. The next level of resistance lies at the mid-Cycle at 103.67. The Cycles Model shows a double burst of strength this week that may propel it above the next resistance. Foreign money is being attracted to the USD due to the continued strength of the US economy and the relative safety of its currency thus far.
Japanese Yen futures rose to a morning high at 67.61 after making its Master Cycle low on Sunday, day 257. A buy signal may be obtained as the Yen rallies above its 50-day Moving Average at 68.64. Trending strength may return by the weekend. This event may cause a double whammy on the equities and real estate markets, as viable alternatives for low interest loans are disappearing.