9:45 am
BKX has declined beneath the combined Intermediate/50-day supports at 111.42-111.46. The sell signal may now be confirmed. A weak Master Cycle high was made last Friday, September 27. A cross beneath the 50-day confirms the Cycle Pivot. The Cycles Model suggests the decline may last a total of 55-60 days. The next support may lie at the lower trendline at 104.50. Should the decline last as long as the Cycles Model implies, the Head & Shoulders neckline at 72.50 may be the ultimate target.
ZeroHedge remarks, “Bank of America customers on Wednesday reported having problems accessing their bank accounts or that their account balances currently show $0.
The outage started at around 12:30 p.m. E.T. on Wednesday, according to the tracking website Downdetector.”
Note: Bank of America Headquarters is in Charlotte, North Carolina
7:45 am 2 Chronicles 7:14
“If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sins, and will heal their land.”
Good Morning!
NDX futures declined to 19652.30, then bounced. It did not take out the weekly low at 19622. 29. Should the NDX break down, the next level of support is the Intermediate level at 19503.82. The 50-day Moving Average lies at 19259.26. A confirmed sell signal may lie beneath either of the two prior supports. There is a deluge of information to be reported in the next 24-36 hors that may alter the course of the markets.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 19825.00. Long gamma may begin at 19850.00 while short gamma may begin beneath 19800.00.A substantial “collar” may mature tomorrow that could allow the options to move more freely.
SPX futures declined to 5676.40 before a bounce this morning. It has not exceeded Monday’s low at 5674.00. Today may be the last day the SPX may remain above 5700.00. An expanded flat correction has the capability to rise to 5732.00. Once accomplished, the wheels may fall off. SPX has made an aggressive sell signal that remains in force, especially beneath 5700.00. Here are some definitions:
- An aggressive sell signal may be found after a Cycle top (all-time high) is made). It suggests that longs should be reduced or eliminated. Shorts may be “layered in” beneath this level. Expect rising volatility. This move takes patience.
- A confirmed sell signal may be found beneath Intermediate support and/or the 50-day Moving Average. While no signal carries an absolute guarantee, each successive signal carries a higher degree of certainty.
- Trading channel (red rising) trendlines, when broken, offer the potential that the trend may be broken with the potential of a complete retracement.
- Super-Cycle trendlines, such as the 1987 trendline, offer the insight of a much greater decline that may take multiple years.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5715.00. Long gamma may stat at 5745.00 while short gamma may lie beneath 5700.00. This options market is also tightly collared until tomorrow’s expiration.
ZeroHedge reports, “US stock futures are lower, but off session lows, in line with declines seen across Europe and Asia, while yields, the dollar and oil rise as the risk of escalating conflict in the Middle East damps risk appetite. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are down 0.1% after closing up 0.01% on Wednesday; Nasdaq futures slide 0.3% with MegaCap Tech mixed: NVDA is up +0.7%, while TSLA extends yesterday selloff and is down -1.6% pre-market. Bloomberg’s dollar index gained for a fourth day, bolstered by a rise in Treasury yields; market snapshot: RTY -70bps // UST10yr +2.5bps @ 3.80bps // WTI +2% @ $71.50 // Bitcoin unch @ $60,900 as global equities trade mixed with escalating geopolitical tensions/ the awaiting of the size/scale Israel’s response to Iran weighs on markets, which has pushed oil prices up another 1.9% this morning; elsewhere in commodities base metals are also higher, while precious metals and ags are lower: Jobless claims, factory orders and the ISM services reading (est 51.7, Last 51.5) are all on the slate as traders prepare for Friday’s jobs report, while the Federal Reserve’s Jeff Schmid, Neel Kashkari and Raphael Bostic are all scheduled to speak.”
VIX futures are positive this morning, rising to 20.32. It may be due for a pullback, should the SPX remain above 5700.00. However, once the pullback is complete< the upward trend may continue on a secular rise. Note that the VIX is now above the levels that occurred prior to the August 5 debacle. A breakout may elevate the VIX to levels above the August 5 high.
A look at the October 9 options chain shows Max Pain at 20.00. Short gamma inhabits 16.00 to 19.00. Long gamma is very scarce. Very larrge moves may occur when investors are wrong-sided.
TNX futures rose to 38.27 this morning, breaking out above the trading channel lower trendline. TNX is on a buy signal, UST (10-year treasuries are on a sell signal). The Cycles Model calls this a day of strength, which may carry over into next week after a brief pullback. The 50-day Moving Average lies at 38.52. The Fed easing may be backfiring, as the excess liquidity appears to be going nowhere. The point is, the excess cash may be hoarded, rather than deployed to the markets.
Japanese Yen futures hit a morning low at 68.00, creating a possible Master Cycle pivot. The 50-day Moving Average lies at 68.50. A move above that level creates a probable buy signal. Today is day 254 of the Master Cycle, so there is a possibility of a marginally new low in the next few days. Time is running out to unwind the Yen carry trade, contrary to popular opinion..
ZeroHedge remarks, “In the past two months, reports of the yen carry trade death have been greatly exaggerated, largely as a result of market whiplash to Japan’s schizophrenic approach toward the currency.”