2:30 pm
SPX may be in the home stretch of this extended retracement after a 79% recovery. This is usually the limit to the Fibonacci numbers. In addition, SPX has made a 4.3-day retracement after an 8.6-day decline. The Cycle may be complete. A sell signal may be invoked beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 5510.00.
8:00 am 2 Chronicles 7:14
“If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sins, and will heal their land.”
Good Morning!
NDX futures reached an overnight high at 19315.00, just beneath the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 19355.06 and the 50-day Moving Average at 19369.05. While it has eased back from its overnight high, it is likely that there may be an attempt to reach one or the other of those targets. At the same time, the retracement bounce/rally may have run out of steam, or nearly so. The rally may have been coordinated. There were 17 impulses averaging 17.6 minutes each. Today is day 251 of the current Master Cycle. Resolution may be made within a week. A sell signal may be incurred beneath Intermediate support at 19017.00.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 19180.00. Long gamma emerges at 19200.00 while short gamma begins at 19200.00. Gamma may remain sticky for a couple of days.
ZeroHedge remarks, “Never was so much owed by so many to so few
It is basically one man that lifts the whole market….
“Huang spoke this morning at the GS Communacopia + Technology Conference.. not sure I’ve ever seen so much energy & excitement at an industry conference before” (GS sales)”
SPX futures have maintained a narrow range in the overnight market after nailing short-term resistance and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 5556.14 near yesterday’s close (a double resistance). While the NDX Wave structure allows another probe higher, the SPX structure appears complete, or nearly so. As mentioned above, today is day 251 of the current Master Cycle. It may be due for a reversal within the next week. A sell signal may reside beneath the 50-day Moving Average at 5508.00.
Today’s options chain shows 5515.00 at Max Pain. Long gamma starts at 5525.00 while short gamma may begin at 5510.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are trading higher ahead of today’s PPI report, extending on yesterday’s post-NVDA rebound momentum, as a rally that started in the US spread to stock markets in Asia and Europe Thursday as the Goldman Communacopia tech conference enters its final day. As of 8:00am, S&P and Nasdaq 100 futures are up 0.1%, with NVDA, GOOG, and META the top performers among MegaCap Tech. European stocks zoomed 1% higher led by Dutch chip-equipment maker ASML as traders braced for another rate cut by the European Central Bank. Asian stocks are also broadly higher with the exception of Chinese equities, which fell to the lowest since early 2019. Bond yields are higher, with the 10Y trading at 3.67% and the 2s10s curve is almost inverted again; the USD is flat. Commodities are mixed with Oil and Base Metals higher, while Precious Metals are lower. Today, the key focus will be PPI and Jobless claims: consensus est are for PPI to print 0.1% MoM vs. 0.1% prior and Core PPI to print 0.2% MoM vs. 0.0% prior. On earnings, keep an eye on consumer read-through from KR (before market-open) and AI/Tech sentiment from ADBE.”
VIX futures remained flat above the 50-day Moving Average in the overnight session. The Cycles Model shows growing trending strength into the weekend, suggesting new heights in the VIX.
The September 18 options chain shows Max pain at 19.00. Short gamma fills the space between 13.00 and 17.00. Long gamma may start at 20.00 and is heavily populated to 45.00.
TNX rose to a high of 36.74 this morning after making a Master Cycle low yesterday at 36.14, on day 259. New trending strength may begin to shoe this weekend and continue to mid-October. A buy signal may be found above the Cycle bottom resistance at 37.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “After yesterday’s stellar 3Y auction, moments ago the Treasury sold $39BN in a 10Y reopening of 9Y-11M cusipg LF6, which for the second day in a row, saw remarkable demand.
The auction stopped at a high yield of 3.648%, which was 31.2bps below last month’s 3.96% and was the lowest since May 2023; it also stopped through the When Issued 3.662 by 1.4bps, the 3rd through in the past 4 auctions, and a clear reversal to last month’s ugly 3.1bps tail.”
Yen futures are consolidating after yesterday’s probe higher. The Cycles Model suggests the trend may continue to early October. This is causing the carry trade to unwind, affecting banks and insurance companies as well as leveraged hedge funds. The carry trade is more pervasive than most would perceive.