8:00 am 2 Chronicles 7:14
“If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sins, and will heal their land.”
NDX futures made a bottom at 18355.60 this weekend, just above the mid-Cycle support at 18304.55. This morning its bounced to 18614.55 and may have resumed its decline. The Wave structure is incomplete and allows multiple outcomes. A minimal outcome is a further decline to the 200-day Moving Average at 18130.13. Another possible target may be the trendline just above round number support at 18000.00. A third possible target may be a potential Head & Shoulders neckline at 17500.00. The last target would proclaim the death knell for the bull market in tech an AI.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 18530.00. Long gamma is possible at 18600.00. However, short gamma begins with a put stronghold at 18500.00 and another stronghold at 18300.00.
SPX futures bounced to 5455.00 this weekend after Friday’s futures low at 5397.10. The bounce may reach resistance at the Intermediate level at 5479.52. The 100-day Moving Average lies at 5378.80, but is unlikely to provide support. Instead, the trendline at 5300.00 may be a minimum target with an alternate being the 1987 trendline and 200-day Moving Average at 5147.63. The Wave structure, while it appears capable of supporting a substantial bounce, it is also prone to a more complex structure, especially because of short gamma in the options market that may come alive at the open
Today’s op-ex shows Max Pain at 5420.00-5425.00. Long gamma may begin at 5580.00. Short gamma bursts on the scene at 5400.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “Futures are higher in a modest relief rally following the worst weekly loss of the year, triggered by cooling US jobs data that left economists and traders at odds as to how aggressively the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates. As of 8:00am ET S&P futures are 0.7% higher while Nasdaq futurs gained 0.8% after the underlying index ended last week with its steepest decline since November: both Mag7 and Semis higher in the premarket along with new index additions. Bond reversed some of their recent gains, with the 10-year Treasury yield jumping four basis points, the first increase in five days, aiding gains in the USD. Commodities are mixed with Energy higher and Ags/Metals lower but with soft patches of strength in base/softs. As JPM’s market intel desk writes, we enter a week with several major questions to answer and additional macro data points: near-term or deadcat bounce? 25 or 50bps? Who leads the election? Is AI dead?”
VIX futures bottomed at 19.45 on Sunday, but has bounced back toward its Cycle Top at 21.00 this morning. The Cycles Model suggests the VIX may have a very strong showing today/tomorrow.
Wednesday’s options expiration shows Max Pain at 18.00-19.00. Short gamma is strong at 15.00-17.00. (Hope springs eternal.) Long gamma may start at 20.00, but is sparse. There seems to be little hedging at this point.
TNX has risen above its Cycle Bottom at 36.32 after making its Master Cycle low on Friday, day 254. Subsequently, TNX may test that support to see if it holds. Should that be the case, this gives TNX its buy signal.
TheEpochTimes comments, “Ever since I started writing about fishy government economic statistics, I’ve been flooded with a fun series of letters from current and retired bean counters. They are thrilled that I’ve taken up the topic and have added various insights. The most compelling point I’ve seen—one that had not occurred to me—comes down to the innumeracy of the employees themselves. They lack the basic intuition to see where their figures just don’t make sense.”
Crude oil futures declined beneath its Head & Shoulders neckline at 68.00 on Friday. The futures bounced, challenging the neckline, but has pulled back beneath it. Should it remain beneath the neckline, the sell signal is reinforced, with the consequences listed on the chart. Despite a potential bounce, Crude Oil is on a longer-term decline that may last until mid-October.
ZeroHedge notes, “Oil and gasoline futures moved higher early Monday as the National Hurricane Center tracked a potential tropical system that threatened parts of the US Gulf Coast later this week. The storm could slam into the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts, accounting for about 60% of US refining capacity.
Potential Tropical Cyclone Six, or Invest 91L, churns in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico early Monday and is forecasted to become a hurricane before it reaches the northwestern US Gulf Coast late Wednesday. The storm emerges right on time, at the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. It is interesting to note that this hurricane season has been very quiet.”
USD futures are consolidating after breaking above it Cycle Bottom at 101.09 last week. It is on a buy signal with the potential of rising to its 50-day Moving Average at 103.80. Analysts are still dismissing the USD as weak.
TheEpochTimes tells us, “Social Security is facing $63 trillion in long-term unfunded liabilities, according to the 2024 Old-Age, Survivors, Disability Insurance (OASDI) trustees report.
