8:00 am 2 Chronicles 7:14
“If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sins, and will heal their land.”
Good Morning!
NDX futures rose to 19897.20 this morning as it strives to reach the Cycle Top resistance at 20399.51. Today is day 265 of the current Master Cycle, as it runs into overtime. The market seems to be almost boringly regular. Unfortunately, there is no sign of an impending cliff arriving at any time. The signs are all there…
Today’s options chain shows Maximum Investor Pain at 19890.00.Long gamma may begin (weakly) at 19900.00. Short gamma appears at 19880.00. Fortunately,, there is not a lot of conviction in either direction.
Zerohedge observes, “It’s delightfully fitting that on the day the entire financial world was holding its breath for Biden’s highly politicized and grossly incompetent Bureau of Labor Statistics to admit it had massively fucked up the jobs data over the past year, that Biden’s highly politicized and grossly incompetent Bureau of Labor Statistics fucked up even more.
At exactly 10am ET this morning, the BLS was supposed to publish its annual CES Preliminary Benchmark Announcement revision, an update on how many jobs in the past year were, for lack of a better word, made up (as we reported earlier, it just so happened that the number was 818,000, which was the second biggest annual overestimation of job creation in US history… something that surely was pure coincidence in an election year).”
Followed up by, “We are too speechless to even offer any snarky, sarcastic commentary because, frankly, this is beyond idiotic.
Asked about today’s near record downward jobs revision, Biden’s Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo – who we repeat, is the Secretary of the Department of Commerce which is responsible among other things, for the Bureau of Economic Analysis – said she “doesn’t believe” the revision because, somehow Trump was behind it. But when she was informed that the data comes from her own administration, namely the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, Raimondo’s response was simply legendary: “I am not familiar with that.””
SPX futures eked out a 2-point gain this morning at 5634.20, with the Master Cycle running a week later than average. One by one, the associated Cycles are pivoting, clearing the way for a globally syncopated panic. Powell’s announcement at J-Hole tomorrow may offer the last hurrah to this rally.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 5630.00. Long gamma may begin at 5650.00. Short gamma may begin at 5600.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “Just over two weeks after the VIX almost touched 70, the market’s freakout is completely forgotten as futures continue rising and a global gauge of stocks approached a record high as traders are now convinced the Fed will deliver its first interest-rate cuts in more than four years, which will take place with both stock and housing prices at all time highs. One can only imagine what happens next. The MSCI’s All Country World index ticked up 0.1%, trading near its all-time record close on July 16. As of 7:45am, S&P futures were 0.2% higher with the index on pace to be up 10 of the past 11 days, while Nasdaq futures gained 0.3%. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index advanced 0.5% as Deutsche Bank AG rallied after predicting a boost to third-quarter results. US futures edged higher. The Bloomberg dollar index is up after rebounding from a 5 month low, while 10Y TSY yields are higher by 3bps to 3.83% after dropping 4 days. Oil is also higher after tumbling to the lowest price of 2024 yesterday. The macro calendar is busy with Initial and jobless claims, Chicago Fed and and existing home sales for July. The Jackson Hole symposium begins tonight with Powell’s highly expected speech due tomorrow at 10am.”
VIX futures eased back, still above the 50-day Moving Average at 15.90. Today is day 253 of a very calm Master Cycle, so it needs to be carefully observed over the next few days. A retest of the low is not out-of-the-question. However, the risk of a market shock is rising.
The August 28 op-ex shows Max Pain at 16.00. Short gamma starts weakly at 15.00-14.00. Long gamma may begin at 18.00.
TNX has risen above the Cycle Bottom support at 37.93 after making its Master Cycle low at 37.63 yesterday, on day 258, showing potential strength beginning tomorrow and extending through next week. . It is now on a buy signal. While on a technical buy signal, today’s move is not sufficiently large enough to signal that a change in trend is taking place.
ZeroHedge reports, “In a day when the markets have tried to make sense of today’s near record downward revision to payrolls, moments ago the US sold $16BN in 20Y paper, and despite the prevailing confusion (does the dire BLS data confirm a 50bps rate cut, or do we stick with 25bps), there were plenty of buyers, even if the auction metrics were not remarkable by any stretch.
The auction, which passed without a hitch, sold at a high yield of 4.16%, which was 30bps below last month’s 4.466%, and the lowest yield since last July; it also stopped through the When Issued 4.161 by the smallest possible margin: 0.1bps, and follows last month’s identical 0.1bp stop through. In fact, this was the 6th consecutive stopping through auction in a row, and 9th of the past 12.”
USD appears to have reversed off its Master Cycle low at 10.78 yesterday, day 266. A buy signal may be made upon a break above the Cycle Bottom at 101.45. The Cycles Model suggests trending strength to begin tomorrow and extend into next week.
Euro futures ramped to 111.90 overnight, then began their reversal back down this morning, ending its current Master Cycle. I had mentioned that the Euro Cycle was extended both in time (268 days) and price and is due for a strong reversal. In fact, (downside) trending strength kicks in tomorrow and extends into next week. The financial Panic may begin in Europe.