July 5, 2024

 9:00 am 2 Chronicles 7:14

“If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sins, and will heal their land.”

ZeroHedge reports,   “It appears that Biden’s apparatchiks refuse to give up on the myth of a “strong labor market” just yet even as they admit to anyone who reads between the lines just how ugly things are getting.

Moments ago the BLS reported that in June the US added 206K jobs, above the 190K expected.



SPX futures remain flat after the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation Survey.  Today is day 252 of the current Master Cycle.  The Master Cycle is nearing its end and a critical pivot may occur at any time.  The Cycles Model also suggests a day of strength, which may be revealed in either or both directions.   Today is likely to be a low volume day which may magnify any moves, as well.

ZeroHedge reports, “S equity futures are unchanged for two days in a row – having gone nowhere during the July 4th holiday – erasing an earlier attempt to break out to all time highs. At 8:00am ET, S&P futures were flat while Nasdaq futures rose 0.1% as global stocks traded at all-time highs before crucial US jobs data that’s expected to show some moderation in hiring. The US dollar dropped for fourth day to its lowest level in three weeks while the pound notched its longest winning streak in four years as Labour swept to power in the UK’s general election. Bond yields are modestly lower ahead of NFP. Commodities are mixed: oil and base metals are lower; precious metals are higher. Today, the key focus today will be NFP release and any further updates on the US election (our full NFP preview is here). Consensus sees 190k jobs being added, with Goldman calling for a street low 140K; unemployment is expected to hold at 4.0% while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3%, down from last month’s 0.4%.”



VIX futures have risen to 12.52 from its Master Cycle low at 11.84  on Wednesday, day 253 in the VIX Master Cycle.  The 50-day Moving Average lies at 13.15, above which is a buy signal.  Most analysts may not recognize the buy signal until it exceeds the 200-day Moving Average at 14.19.

Next week’s options chain shows only moderate activity.  However, the July 17 options chain is chock full of speculation.  Max Pain is at 14.00.  Short gamma exists between 12.50 and 13.50.  Long gamma is heavily populated from 15.00 up to 65.00.  As SPX begins its decline, hedging may expand even higher.


TNX futures have declined to 42.73 while the cash market has made a low of 42.84 this morning.  Today is day 255 of the current Master Cycle.  This allows a couple more market days to achieve its target which may be near 41.00.  Next Tuesday is a day of strength and an ideal day for a reversal, as well.

Note:  I will be on a family vacation next week, so this blog may take a back seat during that time.  I plan on being back at the blog on Monday, July 15.








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