July 1, 2024

9:40 am

BKX made a marginal new high this morning, but may be nearing its retracement limit.  The Cycles Model suggests a reversal may be imminent (this week).  It may be possible that news of small bank failures may be postponed until after the 4th of July holiday.  Should that occur, the subsequent decline may last approximately 2 months.

ZeroHedge reports, “Money market funds saw modest inflows last week (up around $5BN) as bank deposits (NSA) saw $25.7BN outflows…

Source: Bloomberg

However, on a seasonally-adjusted basis, total bank deposits rose by $38BN last week to their highest since SVB’s collapse…


8:15 am  2 Chronicles 7:14

“If my people, which are called by my name, shall humble themselves, and pray, and seek my face, and turn from their wicked ways; then will I hear from heaven, and will forgive their sins, and will heal their land.”

Good Morning!

NDX futures traded between 19658.00 and 19780.00 over the weekend, well beneath its Friday high at 20017.71.  In fact NDX made a Key Reversal on Friday, signifying a potential change in trend.  Should that be so, the Cycles Model offers us about 2 weeks of potential decline.  It doesn’t seem like a lot of time, but the possible loss of confidence after the presidential debates and diminished purchasing power may have a dramatic influence on individual investors and the outcome of this potential decline.  It is being reported that the June net selling of tech stocks by hedge funds has led to a reversal in the last  holdout of the Magnificent 7, NVDA.

Today’s options chain shows Maximum Investor Pain at 19775.00.  Long gamma may start above 19800.00 while short gamma resided beneath 19750.00.


SPX futures have consolidated between 5460.00 and 5480.00 after a Key Reversal from an all-time high at 5523.64 on Friday.  The Cycles Model suggests the bounce may be transitory.  Institutional and hedge fund purchases have diminished, leaving the beleagured retail investors pulling the load.

Today’s options chain reveals Max Pain at 5470.00.  Long gamma may start at 5500.00 while short gamma begins near 5550.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher boosted by a relief rally in French stocks and European bonds, where the result of the French parliamentary election (no outright majority for Le Pen) was not as bad as some had feared. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures are up 0.3, trading near session highs,while Nasdaq futures gained 0.2% with Nvidia dropping as much as 2.8%, but off the lows. Major European markets are higher led by France and Italy after Le Pen’s National Rally led the first round of snap polls but failed to secure an absolute majority as some polls had suggested; CAC +1.4%. On macro data, Germany regional CPI suggests some cooling. We will receive the national German CPI at 8am ET. In Asia, PBOC signals possible government bond sales to cool market rally which pushed Chinese bond yields to record lows. Meanwhile bond yields in the US are 1-2bp higher, the 10Y TSY trading at 4.41%, following higher EU yields; the USD is lower. Commodities are higher led by oil and base metals. Today, the macro focus will be June ISM-Mfg where consensus expects a modest increase to 49.1 vs. 48.7 prior.”



VIX futures rose to 13.16, lifting out of the slump from last week.  It also has about two weeks to the  potential Master Cycle terminus.  The Wave structure may allow a spirited rally out of the low.

Wednesday’s options chain shows possible Max Pain at 13.50.  Short gamma lies at 13.00 while long gamma does not begin until VIX is above 20.  However, there is no follow-through.  Basically dealers are long SPX gamma and are not expecting a rise in volatility this holiday-shortened week.


TNX is on the move, having risen to 44.59 thus far.  Today’s breakout above the mid-Cycle resistance has placed TNX on a confirmed buy signal.  The breakout may only last a week prior to a pullback.  TNX has challenged the 50-day Moving Average.  Once above it, TNX may rise to the Cycle Top resistance at 48.70.





This entry was posted in Published. Bookmark the permalink.