May 13, 2024

8:30 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures made a weekend high at 5236.00, missing Friday’s high at 5239.66.  Today is day 255 in the Master Cycle.  There may be an allowance for a new marginal all-time high, but a full week may be needed in the Master Cycle to accomplish it.  The Nineveh Cycle, which matures on May 18 is still a possibility.  I may alter the structure to reflect that possibility should it warrant it.

Today’s options chain shows Maximum Investor Pain at 5200.00  Long gamma starts at 5225.00.  Short gamma may begin at 5185.00.

ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures extended last week’s solid gains when they traded just about 1% below all time highs, as investors awaited key CPI later this week that will shape the Fed’s actions in coming months. As of 7:30am, contracts on the S&P 500 rose about 0.2% (but still below Friday’s highs), after the index posted a third straight week of gains; meanwhile contracts on the Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.3% even though Alphabet dropped 2% in premarket trading after Bloomberg reported that Apple is closing in on an agreement to use OpenAI’s technology on the iPhone. Treasury yields dipped and the dollar was steady. In addition to the week’s inflation data(both PPI and CPI) a handful of Fed speeches will also be in focus this week, including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and Fed vice chair Philip Jefferson, who speak later in the day.”



VIX futures rose to 13.39 over the weekend and remains positive for the start of the week.  Friday’s low at 12.50 on day 267 may be the low for the old Cycle.  The mainstream crowd is very relaxed when it comes to volatility.  The VVIX has not been this low since 2014, a 10-year span.

The May 15 options expiration shows long gamma clearly trouncing short gamma at 17.00.  Short gamma is clearly on the wane.

ZeroHedge comments, “. No vol……VIX Benjamin Button:ed out of teen-age years and closed at its lowest level since January 23

All in all, too quiet and calm to short into and we do wonder if this is the calm before the melt-up storm…?”


TNX continues to hover just beneath Intermediate resistance at 45.60.  Today is day 255 in the current Master Cycle, suggesting an MC low may still arrive this week.  Should it do so, possible targets may be the 50-day Moving Average at 43.99 or the mid-Cycle support at 43.47.


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