October 17, 2022

10:40 am

BKX rose above the lesser trendline at 100.00 as the short squeeze got a new lease.  However the sell signal is at 100.00 and the Head & Shoulders neckline is at 97.00.  The decline may resume until the end of October.

ZeroHedge advises, “Two weeks ago, Bank of America’s credit strategists made a startling observation: in a note titled “This Is How It Breaks” published by BofA’s high yield strategy team, strategists Oleg Melentyev and Eric Yu wrote that distress, dispersion and debt-to-enterprise-value ratios were all above their June highs, and have pushed pushing the bank’s measure of Credit Stress to a “borderline critical zone” to wit:

Our Credit Stress Indicator (CSI) has jumped 4pts on the week to close at 74th pctle. This level exceeds the June peak of 71 and stands borderline critical zone, which we estimate to be north of 75. Most CSI components have deteriorated away from issuance input, which was already at historical peak stress going into this. Low quality distress, dispersion, and debt/EVs are all above June peak levels now.”


10:28 am

SPX rallied to the 78.6% retracement of Friday’s decline, just above the Short-term resistance at 3665.12.  Beneath the Short-term is a sell signal.  Traders are quicker to go short, so the squeezes are getting larger.  There is an outside chance of the SPX rising to 3700.00 under an even more brutal squeeze in an attempt to force investors out of their hedges.

ZeroHedge comments, “Over the weekend, we pointed out that Friday’s bloodbathery was dominated by hedge fund shorting, setting the market up for a major squeeze higher… yet again…

The overall Prime book saw the largest notional net selling in 4 months (-2.1 SDs), driven by short sales outpacing long buys nearly 5 to 1 – this week’s notional short sales ranks in the 94th percentile vs. the past year.

Setting the market up for the negative delta squeeze…”


8:50 am

Good Morning!

SPX futures jumped to a morning high at 3639.70, sort of the 50% retracement level at 3645.06.  Broadening formations normally  have a 50% retracement before proceeding toward their target.  As mentioned last week, the combination of short gamma and lack of liquidity have made the indices more volatile than usual.  The effect is large daily swings in both directions.  The Cycles Model suggests an increasingly volatile market through election day.  The Lip of the Cup with Handle formation has been tripped and is likely to have its target met over the next four weeks.

In today’s op-ex, Maximum pain for options investors is at 3605.00.  Long gamma begins at 3625 and short gamma starts at 3600.00.  While not heavily populated, options may “steer” performance, especially on bad news.

ZeroHedge expects a meltup day, “As we discussed and previewed over the weekend in “Behind Friday’s Market Massacre: A Huge Burst Of Hedge Funds Shorting, Setting Up Another Squeezefutures are indeed sharply higher to start the week as Treasury yields slumped and the dollar eased as the British peso (also called Britcoin) rallied and UK bonds surged as the new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt scrapped plans to cut taxes and signaled consumers would shoulder more of the increase in energy prices from next April as he set out a package of measures to get a grip on the public finances, effectively reversing pretty much all UK tax cut measures announced just a few weeks ago. Sentiment was also boosted by company results after Bank of America reported beats on the top and bottom line, rising in premarket trading while utilities and auto stocks led gains in Europe. That was indeed enough to spark a modest (for now) squeeze and as of 730am, S&P 500 futures trade higher by 1.3% and Nasdasq 100 futs rose 1.5% bouncing back from a selloff on Friday that left the technology-heavy gauge at its lowest since July 2020; Europe’s Estoxx50 rose 0.7% in early London session, which sees cable higher by 1%. The BBG Dollar index was down 0.2% and the 10Y traded at 3.95%.

And if all those record retail puts purchased in recent days get monetized, expect another epic meltup today.”


VIX futures are making a low of 31.72 this morning, within Friday’s trading range thus far.  The Cycles Model suggests that, while there may be a breakout above the Head & Shoulders formation in late October to mid-November, it may not peak until mid-December.

In Wednesday’s op-ex, Max Pain remains at 29.00.  Short gamma begins at 29.00 while long gamma starts at 30.00.  Massive call positions are being taken starting at 35.00 and extending to 75.00.

ZeroHedge remarks, “Less than a month ago, we noted a peculiarly ‘scary’ position that one trader had put on, betting on a major crisis occurring in financial markets that prompted The Fed to return all the way back to ZIRP before mid-2024.

Since then that bet size has increased…

Source: Bloomberg

During the last week’s chaotic headlines and market movements, we have seen further bets on a very serious crisis occurring… even sooner.

Bloomberg reports that shortly after 1pm on Friday, a trader used options to put on a wager that the VIX could jump to 100 by April, up from its current level of around 32.”


TNX is testing the Cycle Top support at 39.58.  Once clearly beneath it, there may be a shallow decline to the next technical support at 36.02.  A Trading Cycle low may appear later this week.  The following week shows trending strength returning.


USD futures tumbles to 112.31 this morning, as the correction continues.  We may see the next Master Cycle low by the end of the week.  A retest of the Cycle Top is likely.



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