The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
7:45 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures are consolidating between support and yesterday’s new high at 7385.02. While the Cycle may be complete, there may be a brief foray to round number resistance at 7400.00 this morning. Round numbers are attractors that pull in the last dollar before a reversal, should it fail to hold that level at the end of the day. The April jobs report may show a slowdown from the March gains. However, attention may be drawn away from jobs to the situation in the Middle East. The Cycles Mode point out a possible short, but steep, correction with a recovery by June.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 7310.00. Long gamma may strengthen above 7350.00 while short gamma lurks beneath 7300.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are higher and just shy of a new record, with technology names leading futures higher ahead of April jobs report, after Trump’s assertion that the Iran ceasefire is still holding despite an exchange of weapons between the US and Iran overnight, and a deep weekly loss for oil help futures regain positive momentum.”
NDX futures are somnolent, awaiting the payrolls report. While the rally is complete, or nearly so, NDX may make a run to the upper trendline at 291155.00 before a reversal. Keep posted today, as yesterday’s action may have given a warning.
The premarket VIX is consolidating near the low. The Fractal construction may allow another new low prior to completion of the Cycle. A rally above mid-Cycle resistance concludes the decline is over and a buy signal may be given.
The US 10-year Bond Yield may be consolidating beneath the Cycle Top resistance at 44.04. The consolidation may not last, as internal strength is building for a potential breakout over the next few days. The Cycles Model anticipates a probable rally to early June. This may open the possibility of the TNX rising to 50.00 by September.
The US Dollar may be testing yesterday’s low with the possibility of a nominal new low today. However, the Cycles Model shows new trending strength arriving next week that could challenge the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation. A rally above the mid-Cycle resistance at 98.56 may produce that result.
Bitcoin has declined beneath its mid-Cycle support at 80825.00 and its trendline at 80600.00 this morning, offering a potential sell signal. Bitcoin offers a view of market sentiment and overall liquidity, since it has no underlying asset. This may be a warning that all is not well. A correction may be at hand.
Crude oil challenged Intermediate resistance at 97.62 this morning before pulling back. Should it close above it, crude may be on track to move considerably higher. Should it fail to do so, WTI may correct down to the trendline near 85.00. In either event, crude may resume its uptrend shortly.
Gold found support at the Intermediate level at 4660.00 this morning. The Cycles Model shows a probable steady rise for the next month. The nearest resistance is the 52-day Moving Average at 4797.00, then the Cycle Top resistance at 5413.18. New all-tiome highs are possible, if not by June, then possible later this summer.
The Agriculture Index has begun a corrective decline that may last to early June. This may not be a time to sell, but a time to accumulate shares of agricultural products and shares. Possible supports may lie at the 52-day Moving Average at 367.31 or lower at the mid-Cycle support at 359.08 (more likely). The Spring season is critical. many farmers are not planting due to rising costs of fuel and fertilizer. In addition, a megadrought may affect both the size and quality of the crops. Here’s an interesting watch.
ZeroHedge warns, “January, February and March were insanely dry. In fact, in all of U.S. history conditions have never been so dry during the first three months of the year. Just think about that for a moment. Not even during the Dust Bowl days of the 1930s were conditions this dry.”