The Lord’s Prayer
Our Father, who art in heaven, hallowed be thy name. Thy Kingdom come, Thy Will be done, on earth as it is in heaven. Give us this day our daily bread and forgive us our trespasses, as we forgive those who trespass against us. And lead us not into temptation, but deliver us from evil. Amen
7:45 am
Good Morning!
SPX futures rose to 7338.80 this morning on news of a nearing deal with Iran. The Master Cycle is running on overtime, but several Fractal relationships are being met this morning. The first is time. The rally is running on a corrective time clock which may run out today. The second is Fractal construction, which suggests a top range of 7343.00 to 7353.00. This is not random.
Today’s options chain shows Max Pain at 7265.00. Long gamma begins above 7270.00 while short gamma resides beneath 7225.00.
ZeroHedge reports, “US equity futures are up big this morning and making fresh all time highs, led by tech companies, while oil prices and bond yields fell sharply on optimism that the US and Iran are nearing a peace deal.”
The premarket VIX may have made a new Master Cycle low at 16.18 this morning. The fractal structure may be complete. Should that be the case, the VIX may rise to test the neckline of the Head & Shoulders formation at 35.30 in short order. The low is a week early for the current Master Cycle, which may be altered to fit the new high if accomplished in the next two weeks.
Today is options expirations for the VIX. It appears that the shorts won this one. The May 13 options chain shows meager short gamma positions. Long gamma may begin at 19.00 and expands to 30.00.
The US 10-year Bond Yield fell to o43.50 this morning as it re-enters its correction phase. A probable target may be the mid-Cycle support at 41.74 before reasserting an uptrend. The correction may last to early June. The failed attempt at a breakout has analysts concerned about the fragility of equities.
ZeroHedge observes, “In our preview to this morning‘s Quarterly Refunding Statement, we said that we do not expect major changes and that, at most, the treasury might adjust its statement language to soften the forward guidance on possibly futures increase in coupon auction sizes…”
USD declined to 97.62 this morning, as the correction may be complete. The Cycles Model anticipates a reversal, but no strength until mid-May. It may take a few days to sort it out.
Bitcoin may be consolidating above its mid-Cycle support at 81087.00 this morning. However, time may be running out in the current master Cycle. What may follow is being billed as a short, but steep, decline. We’ll be watching support at 65000.00.
Crude oil made a very deep correction to a morning low at 88.66, cutting through its supports. However, the correction may not last. This may be considered a “shakeout” as the uptrend may have been established by rising above 100.00. Trending strength may regain a foothold once crude rises back above 100.00.